Pagosa Weather OCTOBER SUMMARY & November Outlook

The current drought map looks pretty good for Archuleta County

The current drought map looks pretty good for Archuleta County

Monday – 31 Oct 2022 – 8:30pm

October 2022 Summary…

The average low for October is 26 and the average high is 63. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 October 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 October 1910. Precip averages 2.27″ in October with 4″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of rain and 26.7″ of snow.

How did we do?

Temps in October were within 1 degree across Archuleta County.
Temps in October were within 1 degree of average across Archuleta County.
Precipitation in October was below average in the southwest part of the county and above average in the northeast part.
Precipitation in October was below average in the southwest part of the county and above average in the northeast part.
CoCoRaHS liquid equivalent precip totals for Oct range from 1.59" to 2.68". Most reports were below the average of 2.27".
CoCoRaHS liquid equivalent precip totals for Oct range from 1.59″ to 2.68″. Most reports were below the average of 2.27″.
CoCoRaHS snowfall totals for Oct range from zero to 3.3". All reports were below the average of 4.0".
CoCoRaHS snowfall totals for Oct range from zero to 3.3″. All reports were below the average of 4.0″.

Wolf Creek Ski Area reported a total of 14″ in Oct, below the average of 26.7″. They will open a few runs starting on 4 Nov.

Drought and River Flow…

Drought conditions across Archuleta County ranged from "none" in the eastern half to "abnormally dry" in the western half.
Drought conditions across Archuleta County ranged from “none” in the eastern half to “abnormally dry” in the western half.
San Juan River flow ranged from 84.5cfs to 641cfs. Flow was above the median the entire month and well above the median the first half of the month.
San Juan River flow ranged from 84.5cfs to 641cfs. Flow was above the median the entire month and well above the median the first half of the month.
Upper Colorado Basin lake levels. Current is on the left and a month ago is on the right. Overall the levels dropped about 1%. Navajo Reservoir dropped .42%  Vallecito and Lemon both increased.
Upper Colorado Basin lake levels. Current is on the left and a month ago is on the right. Overall the levels dropped about 1%. Navajo Reservoir dropped .42% Vallecito and Lemon both increased.

November 2022 Outlook…

The average low for November is 16 and the average high is 49. The record high of 75 occurred on 2 November 1945. The record low of -18 occurred on 17 November 1907. Precip averages 1.62″ in November with 11.6″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.13″ of liquid equivalent and 54.5″ of snow.

The Climate Prediction Center's November outlook for temps leans towards above normal temps for us.
The Climate Prediction Center’s November outlook for temps leans towards above normal temps for us.
The Climate Prediction Center's November outlook for precip has us on the boarder of "equal chances" and "leans above" normal precip.
The Climate Prediction Center’s November outlook for precip has us on the boarder of “equal chances” and “leans above” normal precip.
The three primary ensemble forecast model precip for Nov - Euro: 2.59" - GFS: 3.21" - Canadian: 2.64". Some of this will be rain and some will be snow.
The three primary ensemble forecast model precip for Nov – Euro: 2.59″ – GFS: 3.21″ – Canadian: 2.64″. Some of this will be rain and some will be snow.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert and this is what she thinks…

During the first third of November, the MJO will influence our weather with enhanced storm systems. However, it fades after that and the La Nina impacts us. The polar front jet and associated storm systems will stay to our north. We need systems to overproduce the first third of the month, because we’ll just get scraps the last two thirds of the month as systems favor northern Colorado. I am not as optimistic as the forecast models, but it just takes a couple of good systems to get us to average!

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

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And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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