Gorgeous Day for Getting Out to Enjoy Last Spots of Color!

River and fall trees against canyon wall

Beautiful day for a hike along Piedra River Trail.  Interestingly, beavers have been busy chopping down aspens in the area.  Are they going to dam the Piedra for a winter home?

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Thursday – 13 Oct 2022 – 8:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high today has been 68 and the low this morning was 32. The cold spots dipped into the mid-20s! Quite a few of us had frost again this morning. Humidity today has been as low as 19%. Winds at the airfield hit 14mph today.

Precip summary… There weren’t any rainshowers in the area yesterday or today.

Forecast discussion…

A huge ridge has built across the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest.  A cutoff low remains off the southern coast of California and will slowly meander northeast and be a player for us on Sunday.

In the meantime, we are in for a few more spectacular autumn days on Friday and Saturday.  Get out and enjoy the last of the colors.

It’s still transition season.  Which means the medium range models are having their mood swings.  One minute, they’re going on about rain and a lot of it.  The next they have dried it all out.  And they’re constantly bickering with each other! 

Finally, I think the consensus is that the upper level low off the coast of California will drift northeast bringing isolated showers to our area on Sunday afternoon into the evening from the south.  However, the heavier showers will be confined to the mountains with just a few rain lottery winners in the valley and those will probably be along the southern edge.  And it will be snow above 10,000 feet. Wolf Creek should see a few inches.

We’ll see a few remnant showers on Tuesday before drying out again on Wednesday.

13 Oct Sat
Satellite at 5pm: Only a few cirrus and altocululus clouds can be seen moving into Colorado from the northwest as high pressure dominates.

There was nothing significant on radar all day.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 13 Oct
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
3 day precip
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects a few hundreds of an inch. Valid till Sunday at 6pm.
NBM Precip 13 oct 22
Amounts are still varied. The NBM forecast model precip through next Tuesday at 6am expects 0.02”. The Euro ensemble shows 0.21” and the GFS ensemble shows 0.11”.  Nearly all of this precip is expected to fall mid day Sunday to early Tuesday. Note the much heavier amounts in New Mexico.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6979 / 19552712 / 1997

Shawn will do the next update will be on Saturday.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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