Fantastic fall weather through Saturday…

Another beautiful sunset after a shower moved through – pic taken 10/9/2022

Another beautiful sunset after a shower moved through – pic taken 10/9/2022

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Tuesday – 11 Oct 2022 – 2:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 34. The cold spots dipped into the mid-20s! Quite a few of us had frost this morning. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 32%. Winds at the airfield hit 18mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Scattered afternoon showers moved over parts of the county the last two days.  Precip amounts have been light.

Yesterday the CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was us in O’Neal Park.

Today’s CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Val in Lost Valley.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from today range from zero to 0.14”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from today range from zero to 0.14”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday range from zero to 0.20”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday range from zero to 0.20”

Forecast discussion…

Upper level flow is increasing out of the northwest as a trough moves across the Northern Plains. Things are drying out and stabilizing in our region.  A shower or two could develop over the mountains this afternoon, but otherwise we’ll be mostly dry. Wednesday through Saturday will be pleasant fall days with lots of sun.

Late Sunday to early Tuesday, a cut-off low is expected to move through southern NM.  We’ll be on the northern edge, so we’ll see more clouds and scattered showers. However, forecast confidence is low at this point.  If the low tracks a little farther to the south, we’ll stay dry.

GeoColor satellite at noon: Cumulus clouds have developed over the mountains, but unlike the last few days, they are flattening out which is a sign of more stable conditions.
GeoColor satellite at noon: Cumulus clouds have developed over the mountains, but unlike the last few days, they are flattening out which is a sign of more stable conditions.

There was nothing significant on radar at noon.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects nothing for us.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects nothing for us.
The NBM forecast model precip through next Tuesday at 6pm expects 0.25”. The Euro ensemble shows 0.22” and the GFS ensemble shows 0.37”.  Nearly all of this precip is expected to fall late Sunday to early Tuesday.
The NBM forecast model precip through next Tuesday at 6pm expects 0.25”. The Euro ensemble shows 0.22” and the GFS ensemble shows 0.37”.  Nearly all of this precip is expected to fall late Sunday to early Tuesday. Note the heavier rain amounts over southern NM.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6880 / 19502815 / 1913

Arleen will do the next update on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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