Two more days of scattered afternoon showers and then a great second half of the week!…

The Archuleta County CoCoRaHS team discussed snow measuring techniques last night – pic taken 10/8/2022

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Sunday – 9 Oct 2022 – 5:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 64 and the low this morning was 35. The cold spots dipped into the upper 20s. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 37%. Winds at the airfield hit 9mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Scattered afternoon showers moved over parts of the county the last two afternoons between mostly 5 and 6pm.

Yesterday the CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Val in the Lost Valley, but an honorable mention goes to Mike near Trujillo.

Today’s CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Hillary near Chromo.

9 Oct 2022 pm CoCoRaHS 24 hour rainfall reports — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from today range from zero to 0.30”*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday range from zero to 0.39”*

Forecast discussion…

We remain in the battleground between a ridge to the northwest and a cutoff low to the southwest, but the moisture is slowly being pushed farther to our south. The upper level low is finally expected to weaken and move east through southern NM.

Today and tomorrow there is still enough moisture and instability to kick up scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect storms to move slowly towards the south or south-southeast and they could drop heavy rain over small areas. The snow level will average around 11,000ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.

Starting Tuesday afternoon upper level flow will increase out of the northwest. We’ll dry out, the atmosphere will stabilize, and we’ll warm up a few degrees. We’ll stay dry through Saturday and then might see a few scattered showers on Sunday.

*Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Scattered showers have popped up again over the mountains and are moving slowly towards the south and south-southeast.*

*Radar this afternoon: Scattered showers have developed again this afternoon, mostly over the eastern part of the county. They are moving very slowly towards the south.*

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.04” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all spotty convective precipitation, and the rain lottery winners will likely beat those amounts.

*The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 1-3” above timberline in our mountains. The snow level will average around 11,000ft but could drop briefly to 10,500ft with heavier showers.*

Euro forecast model precip through next Sunday at 6pm expects 0.06”. The NBM shows 0.04” and the GFS shows 0.18”. Nearly all of this precip will fall this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon and it will be spotty.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
68	84 / 1910	28	16 / 1975

My next update will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon