Best chance for rain is Sunday & Monday…

Storms brewed over the mountains yesterday, but missed most of the valley… Pic taken 8/4/2022

Friday – 5 Aug 2022 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 58. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 32%. Winds at the airfield hit 21mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Some of us got a little rain on Wednesday but yesterday was a dud for most of us.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for yesterday range from zero to 0.17”. New CoCoRaHS observer Amanda was the rain lottery winner in the lower Navajo River valley. Thanks for your report Amanda!*

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for today range from zero to 0.11”. Hillary in the upper Navajo River valley was the rain lottery winner. Thanks for your report Hillary! — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for today range from zero to 0.11”. Hillary in the upper Navajo River valley was the rain lottery winner.* *Thanks for your report Hillary!*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The high is currently to our south-southeast, which is a good spot for us. It will continue to push monsoon moisture into our area from the southwest.

Cape, a measure of instability, and precipitable water are both down slightly today but are still marginal for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Like yesterday, spotty showers and thunderstorms will still develop in the afternoon, especially near the mountains.

Starting tomorrow and through Monday, Cape and precipitable water will increase, so we’ll see more afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. A few showers could last into the evenings, especially Sunday and Monday nights.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

*Water vapor analysis this morning: The high is to our south-southeast. That’s a good spot for us because it pushes more monsoon moisture into our area from the southwest.*

At 8:00am there was nothing significant on radar in our region.

My forecast…

Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday and Monday and they could linger into the nights. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday and Monday and they could linger into the nights.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.4” of rain in town and up to 1.25” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 15 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.29” and our mountains getting up to 2.5”. The GFS ensemble says 2.19” and the Euro ensemble has 1.29”. The forecast model trend is for less precip. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	97 / 1940	46	29 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be either late tomorrow afternoon or on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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