More active & more wet the second half of the week…

Heavy rain over the West Fork valley yesterday… Pic taken 8/2/2022

Heavy rain over the West Fork valley yesterday… Pic taken 8/2/2022

Wednesday – 2 Aug 2022 – 8:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 82. The low this morning was 53. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 31%. Winds at the airfield hit 25mph yesterday but a few spots hit 35mph as storms moved through.

Precip summary… There were some impressive storms yesterday afternoon with brief periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lots of lightning.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for yesterday range from a trace to 0.22”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for yesterday range from a trace to 0.22”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for today range from zero to 0.62"
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall for today range from zero to 0.62″

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The monsoon moisture plume was weaker yesterday but will be slightly stronger today.  But even with marginal instability and marginal moisture, we still had a few impressive storms yesterday.

Cape, a measure of instability, and precipitable water are both up slightly today but are still marginal for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Like yesterday, spotty showers and thunderstorms will still develop in the afternoon.

Starting tomorrow and through the weekend, the monsoon plume will shift our direction again, so we’ll see an increase of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity. A few showers could last into the evenings.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Infrared satellite loop from 2pm to 4pm yesterday – A few intense thunderstorms blew up quickly around 2pm. They stayed closer to the mountains.  The upper Piedra weather sensor indicated over an inch of rain and radar indicated over an inch of rain in the West Fork valley.  There was also lots of lightning and gusty winds.
Infrared satellite loop from 2pm to 4pm yesterday – A few intense thunderstorms blew up quickly around 2pm. They stayed closer to the mountains.  The upper Piedra weather sensor indicated over an inch of rain and radar indicated over an inch of rain in the West Fork valley.  There was also lots of lightning and gusty winds.

At 8:00am there was nothing on radar in our region.

My forecast…

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could last into the nights starting tomorrow. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could last into the nights starting tomorrow.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.6” of rain in town and up to 1.3” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.6” of rain in town and up to 1.3” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 13 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.56” and our mountains getting up to 2.50”. The GFS ensemble says 2.46” and the NBM has 3.26”. That’s a big variance that does not instill forecast confidence. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 13 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.56” and our mountains getting up to 2.50”. The GFS ensemble says 2.46” and the NBM has 3.26”. That’s a big variance that does not instill forecast confidence. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19404634 / 1975

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be Friday morning. 

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Yesterday along the 160 corridor from Yellow Jacket to Cat Creek around 4pm, I hit one of those intense bursts! WOW! Windshield wipers didn’t help, if you know what I mean!! Continued to rain for another 45 minutes up in Oak Hill.

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