Best odds are today through Saturday…

Squash

My zucchini squash is enjoying our monsoon conditions!

Thursday – 28 Jul 2022 – 8:15 am update.

The past…

The high on Wednesday at Stevens Field was 78 and the low this morning was 53. The lowest humidity reading yesterday was 35 percent and the highest wind gust was 25 mph. The heavier rain missed our area again.

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COCORAHS rainfall reports for the Pagosa Springs area were below what was forecast yesterday. Our odds for heavier rain will ramp up today through Saturday.
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Remote sensor rainfall reports from the past 24 hours show Pagosa Springs missing out on the heavier rainfall totals yesterday.
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A flood watch has been issued by the NWS for our area from 10am to 10pm today.

Forecast discussion…

Once again, the greater Pagosa Springs area was on the low side of the rain totals. The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for us from 10am through 10pm tonight. The same scenario is in place…lots of tropical moisture just looking for a trigger to drop heavy pockets of rain. Today a weak shortwave will pass over the divide, boosting our rain odds this afternoon and evening. Looking at the latest model runs, the best chance for heavier rain is today through Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center has placed Archuleta County in the Red Zone (20-50% chance) for excessive rainfall today. As we have seen over the past few days, storms tend to pop up, move slowly, then dissipate. If you are lucky to be under one as if forms, you can get a lot of rain in a short period of time.

The Grand Junction radar is down for maintenance until August 2nd. Our only coverage until then will be from Albuquerque, NM, which only goes to HWY 160 and Alamosa’s which can only be seen using the MMRS radar viewer and covers some areas east of town, including Wolf Creek Pass. Here is the link to the MMRS site: Op Product Viewer (noaa.gov)

We continue to be sandwiched between a ridge to our north and a one over Texas. Moisture in the mid-levels and surface is flowing into our area, increasing our precipitable water values to over an inch (monsoon conditions). Latest model runs forecast our monsoon flow to continue at least through the weekend and into next week.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

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Wedged between a ridge to our north and one over Texas, mid-level winds will continue to draw in tropical moisture from the SW all week long.
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Precipitable water continues over an incha good sign for more rain.
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We are in the Red Zone (20-50% chance) for excessive rainfall today. 
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The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast is predicting 1.7 inches for Pagosa Springs, 2 inches for Chama and 2.1 inches for the mountains, but as we have witnessed this week, these totals will vary.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 28 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 28th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393/ 19474627 / 1913

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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3 Responses

  1. At Hilltop Cemetery area: Steady moderate to heavy rain from 5pm yesterday into the middle of the night. No reading on amount yes all homade gages overflowed!
    Chuck Riehm

  2. Lots of cloud cover. Lots of afternoon thunder…NO rain. Temperatures are nice…humidity is not.
    I found the Ponderosa hit by lighting on my lot the other day….big strip of bark missing down one side… Maybe live, maybe die…definitely wounded.

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