Flood Watch issued by the NWS today…

Showers

A few showers are dropping some rain over Pagosa Peak this morning at 10am.

Wednesday – 27 Jul 2022 – 10:30am update.

The past…

The high on Monday at Stevens Field was 77 and the low this morning was 57. The lowest humidity reading yesterday was 33 percent and the highest wind gust was 23 mph. Very little rain was reported in our area yesterday.

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COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours ranged from a high of 1.01 in Chama, NM to zero for most of us in Pagosa Springs.
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Remote sensor rainfall reports from the past 24 hours show most of the rain fell in Dulce and Chama, NM.
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A flood watch has been issued by the NWS for our area from noon to midnight.

Forecast discussion…

As I feared yesterday, the cloudy cool morning put a damper on our rain yesterday for most of our area, with most of the rain falling to our south, in Chama and Dulce, NM. We are starting out this day very similar to yesterday, with clouds and even some showers this morning so it will be interesting to see what happens this afternoon. As noted above, the NWS has issued a Flood Watch for us through midnight tonight. Looking at the latest model runs, the best odds for heavier rain for us appear to be on Thursday, so will the NWS extend the Flood Watch tomorrow? As we have seen over the past few days, storms tend to pop up, move slowly, then dissipate. If you are lucky to be under one as if forms, you get a lot of rain in a short period of time. Unfortunately, if you see one nearby, it often goes “poof” before moving over your backyard.

Radar will go from bad to worse today, with the Grand Junction radar down for maintenance until August 2nd. Our only coverage until then will be from Albuquerque, NM.

We continue to be sandwiched between a ridge to our north and a one over Texas. Moisture in the mid-levels and surface is flowing into our area, increasing our precipitable water values to over an inch (monsoon conditions). Latest model runs forecast our monsoon flow to continue at least through the weekend and into next week.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

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Wedged between a ridge to our north and one over Texas, mid-level winds will continue to draw in moisture from the SW all week long.
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Precipitable water continues over an incha good sign for more rain.
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We are in the Yellow Zone (10-20% chance) for excessive rainfall today. 
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The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast is predicting 1.7 inches for Pagosa Springs, 1.9 inches for Chama and 2.1 inches for the mountains, but as we have witnessed this week, these totals will vary.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 27 22 1
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 27th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8290/ 19664634 / 1995

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

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2 Responses

  1. Hey…I can understand not wanting July to end but it’s still confusing on your forcasted dates. For example July 27th is Wednesday.
    Thanks for the wonderful work you all put in. It’s much appreciated!

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