40-45mph winds today and tomorrow – NO FIRES!…

Cap Nathan J. Nylander US Air Force, Weather Warrior Killed in action 27 Apr 2011 Please take a few minutes on Memorial Day to remember Cap Nylander and so many others like him that gave their lives for our country.

Please take a few minutes on Memorial Day to remember Capt Nylander and so many others like him that gave their lives for our country.

Sunday – 29 May 2022 – 8:30am

Operation ENDURING FREEDOM on 27 April 2011…

“On the morning of 27 April, an assailant opened fire upon United States personnel shooting seven U.S. Air Force Airmen and one American civilian contractor. Despite an extremely uncertain tactical situation, and with disregard for his own safety, Captain Nylander went to the Air Command and Control Center (ACCC), Afghan Air Force (AAF) Headquarters in response to the shooting. He responded when the gunman began shooting as he was with four other Airmen and eight Afghan personnel in a conference room adjoining the ACCC. Captain Nylander could have exited the building to safety, but chose instead to return and assist his fellow Airmen. Captain Nylander then engaged the gunman, wounding the assailant and when he remained on the floor motionless, Captain Nylander approached the other rooms. The gunman arose and went into a room across the hall from the conference room. When the gunman re-emerged into the hallway, Captain Nylander engaged the assailant again and during this exchange of gunfire, Captain Nylander sustained wounds to his left and right thighs. Although seriously wounded and bleeding heavily, he continued to engage the gunman until his weapon jammed. When he attempted to exit the rear entrance of the AAF Headquarters, he was killed by the gunman. Captain Nylander’s brave actions degraded the gunman’s capability and likely prevented further loss of life, including that of other U.S. personnel who remained in the AAF Headquarters. By his bold initiative, undaunted courage, and complete dedication to duty, Captain Nylander gallantly gave his life for his country and reflected great credit upon himself and upheld the highest traditions of the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan and Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan, and the United States Air Force.”

Please take a few minutes on Memorial Day to remember Capt Nylander and so many others like him that gave their lives for our country.

Plumtaw Fire update…

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 77%
Size: 735 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: 21 Hours Ago

Perins Peak Fire (Durango)

Incident Type: Wildfire
Percent Contained: 80%
Size: 106 acres
More Fire Information: Via Inciweb
Last Updated: 11 Hours Ago

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 74 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 10%. Winds at the airfield yesterday afternoon peaked at 35mph, but a few spots hit 40mph.

Another “Tohatchi Dust Plume” moved into our area yesterday afternoon.  Incorrect smoke reports yesterday indicate that the dust was worse along 84 south of town.

Southwest flow is keeping smoke to our east.
Southwest flow is keeping smoke to our east. 

Precip summary… None in the last 24 hours

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

*** A FIRE WEATHER WATCH has been issued for Monday.  Expect this to be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. *** Nothing has been issued for today but fire danger remains very very high.

A low pressure system will slowly move through southern Idaho today and then a secondary low pressure system will move through the Great Basin and then northern Utah Monday and Tuesday. Just like most systems this spring, the moisture and storm energy will stay to our north and we’ll just get strong winds. We’ve got a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm later today and an even “slighter” chance tomorrow afternoon, but we’ll be lucky if the ground gets wet. Dust plumes are likely again later today and tomorrow afternoon due to the strong southwest winds.

Ridging will take over during the middle of the week and give us lots of sun, warm temps, and breezy afternoons.

Satellite this morning: Bands of mid and upper level clouds are moving through our area from the west. The trough currently over western Utah will move through Colorado later today and kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the activity will stay to our north.
Satellite this morning: Bands of mid and upper level clouds are moving through our area from the west. The trough currently over western Utah will move through Colorado later today and kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of the activity will stay to our north.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.01” over parts of the valley and up to 0.10” in our mountains. It’s convective precip so it will be spotty.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.01” over parts of the valley and up to 0.10” in our mountains. It’s convective precip so it will be spotty.
This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to Friday at midnight –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well. Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds in the 40-45mph range today and tomorrow and then around 30mph the rest of the week. Other models expect slightly weaker winds towards the end of the week, so I’ll be optimistic and go with 15-25mph for Wednesday and Thursday.
This is Euro ensemble wind gusts to Friday at midnight –This chart is read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu.  I added the max wind speeds every day at 00Z/6PM for clarity.  Our peak winds usually occur between 18Z and 00Z. This product has been handling daily peak wind gusts very well.

Looking ahead, this model expects peak winds in the 40-45mph range today and tomorrow and then around 30mph the rest of the week. Other models expect slightly weaker winds towards the end of the week, so I’ll be optimistic and go with 15-25mph for Wednesday and Thursday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7288 / 19103217 / 1916

Recent presentations…

A HUGE thanks to the folks that came to our presentation at the library on Thursday!  We enjoyed the questions and are humbled by your support!

Another HUGE thanks to the folks that spoke with us at the Ski & Bow Rack on Friday afternoon. We enjoyed some interesting conversations and were thrilled to meet a few followers!

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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