Pagosa Weather APRIL SUMMARY and May outlook

Snowpack in our area peaked early and is melting quickly

Sunday – 1 May 2022 – 6pm

April 2022 Summary…

The average low for April is 24 and the average high is 59. The record high of 81 occurred on 30 April 1981. The record low of -4 occurred on 1 April 1980. April precip averages 1.38″ with 6.3″ of snow. Wolf Creek averages 44.8″ of snow in April and 425.3″ for the season to 30 April.

How did we do? Check out these charts…

**April temperatures were close to average across Archuleta County**

***Most of Archuleta County had less than 25% of average precip in April.***

CoCoRaHS liquid equivalent reports for April range from 0.26" to 0.67" across Archuleta County - well short of the 1.38" average — ***CoCoRaHS liquid equivalent reports for April range from 0.26″ to 0.67″ across Archuleta County – well short of the 1.38″ average***

CoCoRaHS snowfall reports for April range from 0 to 4" across Archuleta County - well short of the 6.3" average — ***CoCoRaHS snowfall reports for April range from 0 to 4″ across Archuleta County – well short of the 6.3″ average***

1 May 2022 Wolf Creek April and season snowfall totals 1

A string of springtime storms has helped the northern part of the western states. Unlike much of the winter, this looks more like what we expect from a LaNina winter. For Colorado, the northern part of the state is in better shape than the southern part. — ***A string of springtime storms has helped the northern part of the western states. Unlike much of the winter, this looks more like what we expect from a LaNina pattern.*** ***For Colorado, the northern part of the state is in better shape than the southern part.***

***The Upper San Juan snotel is at 58% and the Wolf Creek Summit snotel is at 73%. A few of the snotels like Vallecito and Weminuche Creek are already at zero.***

Drought and River Flow…

Drought conditions for Archuleta County and most of Colorado haven't changed in the last month. I think we'll start going backwards. Keep in mind that droughts are a slow process, both to improve and worsen. — Drought conditions for Archuleta County and most of Colorado haven’t changed in the last month. Unfortunately I think we’ll start going backwards. Keep in mind that droughts are a slow process, both to improve and to worsen.

***San Juan River flow has been mostly above the mean. The lowest flow was 286cfs on 2 April and the highest was 1,630cfs on 22 April.***

May 2022 Outlook…

The average low for May is 30 and the average high is 68. The record high of 89 occurred on 30 May 1910. The record low of 8 occurred on 1 May 1967. May precip averages 1.26″ with 1.1″ of snow. Wolf Creek averages 2.05″ of liquid equivalent, 12.09″ of snow in May and 437.4″ for the season.

***The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May shows a good chance for above average temps in our area.***

***The Climate Prediction Center precipication outlook for May shows a good chance for below average precip in our area.***

These are the long range ensemble precipitation anomalies for May. The Euro is top center, GFS is bottom left, and Canadian is bottom right. These products are often inaccurate and inconsistent (look at Montana and the Dakotas for an example). However, when they line up like this for our area, I pay more attention. Unfortunately it doesn't look good. — ***These are the long range ensemble precipitation anomalies for May. The Euro is top center, GFS is bottom left, and Canadian is bottom right.*** These products are not reliable and are often inconsistent (look at Montana and the Dakotas for an example). However, when they line up like this for our area, I pay more attention. Unfortunately it doesn’t look good.

And what do we expect?

Well Arleen is the expert and this is what she says…

I look at the global oscillations to get an idea of what the long range forecast will be. Unfortunately, it looks like the month of May will continue the drought trend. The MJO is weak and will have little influence. The ENSO pattern had started to show a warming trend but the easterly equatorial trade winds increased causing significant upwelling and cooling of the ocean waters again off the western South America waters. The result for us is a ridge of high pressure with the polar front jet staying north and few frontal weather systems progressing through the southwest area. Other than a few days of some rain the second week of the month, it looks to be dry. May will be drier and warmer than average.

We’ll try to stay optimistic! Keep in mind that most precip through the summer is convective which is highly variable. One slow moving thunderstorm can drop a month’s worth of rain in a few lucky spots. Let’s hope for a few of those slow movers!

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

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Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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