Wind and dust this afternoon and a tiny chance for showers tonight.

We are under a Red Flag Warning from 9am until 11pm and a wind advisory from noon to 8pm.

5-1-22 9am update…

The low today at Stevens Field has been 30 degrees and the high yesterday was 64 degrees. There has been no precipitation recorded in the past 24 hours. The highest wind gust was 27 mph yesterday.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING… * WHAT…Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE…In Utah, Southeast Utah. In Colorado, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS…Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down.

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS. * WINDS…Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY…7 to 12 percent. * IMPACTS…Conditions will become favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to low relative humidity and strong gusty winds.

Screenshot 2022 05 01 082020
An approaching trough and cold front will kick up our winds today and give us a micro chance for some rain and snow showers tonight. Most of the moisture from this system will stay to our north.

With such a calm start to the day, it’s hard to believe that by this afternoon we will be dealing with another round of winds gusting to over 40mph and intermittent blowing dust! An approaching trough to our west and cold front will kick up our winds this afternoon and give us a micro chance for some rain and snow showers tonight as it passes through. Unfortunately, most of the moisture from this system will stay to our north.

By tomorrow, high pressure moves back in for 24 hours before another trough moves through on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Once again, most of the moisture from the next system will stay to our north, giving us only a slight chance for some afternoon thunderstorms. Winds will continue be our nemesis this week, with gusts approaching or exceeding 30mph in the afternoons.

My next post will be Tuesday unless something meteorologically bizarre occurs!

Screenshot 2022 05 01 074737
Winds could gust over 40mph today. This is the latest HRRR model run.
Screenshot 2022 05 01 074241
NWS forecast rainfall totals over the next 3 days…pretty wimpy.
Screenshot 2022 05 01 075220
Long range models are hinting at better odds for rainfall for next week. Hoping it verifies.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, call 877-841-0247.

Pagosa 5 day forecast 5 1 22

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for May 1st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6379/ 1940268/ 1967

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