Windy and dry – fire danger will increase…

One of my favorite scenes along Piedra Road… Pic taken 4/15/2022

One of my favorite scenes along Piedra Road… Pic taken 4/15/2022

Sunday – 17 Apr 2022 – 11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 64. The low this morning was 32. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 38mph.

By the way, it’s wind season. Wind prone areas will see gusty afternoon winds more often than naught until the monsoon starts to set up in mid-June.

** Be careful with fire! Winds will get gusty in wind prone areas every afternoon between 11 and noon. **

Fire and smoke map this morning… Most fire activity is currently to our south and east. In NM the Hermits Peak Fire near Las Vegas and the McBride Fire near Ruidoso have burned thousands of acres and are roughly 50% contained.
Fire and smoke map this morning… Most fire activity is currently to our south and east. In NM the Hermits Peak Fire near Las Vegas and the McBride Fire near Ruidoso have burned thousands of acres and are roughly 50% contained.

Precip summary… There might have been a few “rainflakes” over the mountains yesterday evening, but they didn’t amount to anything.

Forecast discussion…

Today through Thursday ridging stays over the region and gives us dry and windy weather.

The next system will move through Friday and Saturday.  The northern mountains are favored – we will just get the scraps and wind.

Satellite this morning: It’s clear in our area.  Clouds continue to stream across the northern Colorado mountains. The ridge off the west coast will keep us dry and breezy through Thursday.
Satellite this morning: It’s clear in our area.  Clouds continue to stream across the northern Colorado mountains. The ridge off the west coast will keep us dry and breezy through Thursday.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Euro ensemble wind gusts for Stevens Field through 1 May at 6pm – The top part of the chart shows wind gusts for 50 data runs of the Euro model.  The bottom shows the mean of the 50 runs.  Times are Zulu and read left to right with the most current time on the left. I put * at 00z every day, which is 6pm local time. Every afternoon the winds are 20mph or higher – the average is 25-30mph.  Winds on Tuesday and Friday hit 40mph.
Euro ensemble wind gusts for Stevens Field through 1 May at 6pm – The top part of the chart shows wind gusts for 50 data runs of the Euro model.  The bottom shows the mean of the 50 runs.  Times are Zulu and read left to right with the most current time on the left. I put * at 00z every day, which is 6pm local time.

Every afternoon the winds are 20mph or higher – the average is 25-30mph.  Winds on Tuesday and Friday hit 40mph.

** With all forecast products, we compare these to other products, compare them to recent events, compare them to our experience with similar systems during this time of year, consider how the system will interact with our terrain (a biggie!), and then make appropriate adjustments. **

NBM liquid equivalent through Saturday at midnight shows 0.01” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.  The northern mountains are favored – we just get scraps and winds.
NBM liquid equivalent through Saturday at midnight shows 0.01” for Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Most of this precip falls Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon.  Some models expect more precip. The northern mountains are favored – we’ll just get scraps and winds.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6175 / 19622510 / 1930

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Wolf Creek’s season ends today!  Arleen will announce a contest winner this evening. It was close! The winner will get a $50 gift certificate for Ski and Bow Rack. The four runners up will get Ski and Bow Rack hats.

My next post will be on Tuesday unless something pops up.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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