Should be a fun weather day!…

Frosty was covered with an inch of new snow this morning… Pic taken 3/29/2022

Frosty was covered with an inch of new snow this morning… Pic taken 3/29/2022

Tuesday – 29 Mar 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 60. The low this morning was 34. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 38mph at 6pm.

Precip summary… Wolf Creek reported 5″ of new snow this morning. We measured 1.1″ of wet snow and 0.29″ liquid just north of Turkey Springs.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour liquid equivalent precip reports range from 0.12” to 0.30”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour liquid equivalent precip reports range from 0.12” to 0.30”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 0 to 1.1”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 0 to 1.1”

Forecast discussion…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft valid to noon on Wednesday.  Expect 5-10” of snow with locally higher amounts. *** Winds will also gust to 40mph in the mountains causing blowing snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions.

The main low is over AZ and moving east.  There are a couple of other circulations that have resulted in a complicated pattern.  The main trough will move through this afternoon and kick up occasional showers and a thunderstorm or two.  The snow level this morning is around 7,000ft and will bounce around to 8,300ft.

A trough will move through Wednesday afternoon from the northwest.  Northwest isn’t a good trajectory for us, but the timing, during max heating, and instability caused by the trough, will lead to scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two, mostly over the mountains. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.  All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail.  If you don’t like the weather, just a wait a few minutes and it will change!

Thursday afternoon scattered showers will start over the mountains and then become more widespread during the evening.  We’ll see on and off showers until the trough moves through Friday afternoon. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft again.

Saturday ridging will build over the region and give us sunny skies and seasonal temps.

Satellite this morning: The main low is over AZ and moving east. The “X’s” are minor circulations and are making the pattern complicated.  The whole region has moisture and enough storm energy to kick up scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Satellite this morning: The main low is over AZ and moving east. The “X’s” are minor circulations and are making the pattern complicated.  The whole region has moisture and enough storm energy to kick up scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Radar this morning: There are scattered showers across the region and they’re moving all kinds of ways, depending on the nearest circulation. Showers in our area are moving southwest to northeast.
Radar this morning: There are scattered showers across the region and they’re moving all kinds of ways, depending on the nearest circulation. Showers in our area are moving southwest to northeast.

My forecast…

Today – Off and on heavy showers and an isolated thunderstorm will occur until around sunset. The snow level will bounce around between 7,000ft this morning to 8,300ft this afternoon. All types of precip are possible.  Wednesday and Thursday afternoons – spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, mainly over the mountains.  The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.  All types of precip are possible and snow is unlikely to stick in the valley. Thursday night and Friday – There will be more showers.  Again the snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft. * LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Today – Off and on heavy showers and an isolated thunderstorm will occur until around sunset. The snow level will bounce around between 7,000ft this morning to 8,300ft this afternoon. All types of precip are possible. 

Wednesday and Thursday afternoons – spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, mainly over the mountains.  The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.  All types of precip are possible and snow is unlikely to stick in the valley.

Thursday night and Friday – There will be more showers.  Again the snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.

* LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
The NWS snowfall valid 6am this morning to 6pm Wednesday shows less than an inch in Pagosa, 1-2” above 7,500ft, and 8-12” in our mountains.  This lines up well with what I expect.
The NWS snowfall valid 6am this morning to 6pm Wednesday shows less than an inch in Pagosa, 1-2” above 7,500ft, and 8-12” in our mountains.  This lines up well with what I expect.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon shows 0.06” in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains. We’ll be lucky to get a half inch of snow in the valley and the mountains will be in the 2-3” range.
The WPC 24-hour liquid equivalent precip valid Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon shows 0.06” in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains. We’ll be lucky to get a half inch of snow in the valley and the mountains will be in the 2-3” range.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5172 / 198619-5 / 1975

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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