Frosty was covered with an inch of new snow this morning… Pic taken 3/29/2022
Tuesday – 29 Mar 2022 – 10:00am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 60. The low this morning was 34. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 38mph at 6pm.
Precip summary… Wolf Creek reported 5″ of new snow this morning. We measured 1.1″ of wet snow and 0.29″ liquid just north of Turkey Springs.
Forecast discussion…
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft valid to noon on Wednesday. Expect 5-10” of snow with locally higher amounts. *** Winds will also gust to 40mph in the mountains causing blowing snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions.
The main low is over AZ and moving east. There are a couple of other circulations that have resulted in a complicated pattern. The main trough will move through this afternoon and kick up occasional showers and a thunderstorm or two. The snow level this morning is around 7,000ft and will bounce around to 8,300ft.
A trough will move through Wednesday afternoon from the northwest. Northwest isn’t a good trajectory for us, but the timing, during max heating, and instability caused by the trough, will lead to scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two, mostly over the mountains. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft. All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail. If you don’t like the weather, just a wait a few minutes and it will change!
Thursday afternoon scattered showers will start over the mountains and then become more widespread during the evening. We’ll see on and off showers until the trough moves through Friday afternoon. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft again.
Saturday ridging will build over the region and give us sunny skies and seasonal temps.
My forecast…
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons – spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, mainly over the mountains. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft. All types of precip are possible and snow is unlikely to stick in the valley.
Thursday night and Friday – There will be more showers. Again the snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.
* LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 51 | 72 / 1986 | 19 | -5 / 1975 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
