A colorful sunset over the Rio Grande Pyramid… Pic taken 3/27/2022
Monday – 27 Mar 2022 – 10:00am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 67 – just 2 degrees from tying the record of 69. The warm spots yesterday got into the low 70s. The low this morning was 30. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 28mph.
Precip summary… There was none in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft valid from midnight tonight to noon on Wednesday. Expect 5-10” of snow with locally higher amounts. *** Winds will also gust to 45mph in the mountains causing blowing snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions.
Upper level southwest flow and moisture will gradually increase as our next system moves east. Precip is likely tonight and tomorrow. The snow level will start around 9,000ft and then lower to around 7,400ft by sunrise tomorrow. The atmosphere will also be unstable enough tomorrow to kick up an isolated thunderstorm or two.
A trough will move through Wednesday afternoon from the northwest. Northwest isn’t a good trajectory for us, but the timing, during max heating, and instability caused by the trough, will lead to scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two, mostly over the mountains. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft. All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail. If you don’t like the weather, just a wait a few minutes and it will change!
Thursday afternoon scattered showers will start over the mountains and then become more widespread during the evening. We’ll see on and off showers until the trough moves through late afternoon Friday. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft again.
My forecast…
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons – spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible, mainly over the mountains. The snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft. All types of precip are possible and snow is unlikely to stick in the valley.
Thursday night and Friday – There will be more showers. Again the snow level will bounce around between 6,500ft and 8,500ft.
* LE = liquid equivalent. * * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 51 | 70 / 1986 | 19 | -8 / 1930 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
