The weather was great yesterday for a snowshoeing adventure above Wolf Creek Pass… Pic taken 2/19/2022
Sunday – 20 Feb 2022 – 4:55pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 45 and the low this morning was 12. The peak wind at the airfield was 8mph.
Precip in the last 24 hours… None
Forecast discussion…
The upper level ridge is moving through now and southwest flow will push more clouds into the area overnight.
Monday afternoon through Thursday afternoon a low pressure system is expected to slowly move through the Great Basin. Cold air, southwest flow causing orographic lift over our mountains, moisture, and storm energy are lined up to bring us a good round of snow!
My forecast…
Today… Clouds will gradually increase overnight. Lows tonight will be in the 10 to 25 range.
Monday at noon through Thursday afternoon… Initially snowshowers will be hit and miss and then ramp up Monday evening. Expect periods of heavy snow, blowing snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions Monday night through Wednesday night. The bulk of the snow will be done by early Thursday morning, though scattered showers will persist through the day, especially over the mountains.
Winds… At times winds will gust 20-30mph causing blowing and drifting snow, especially Monday night and Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Winds up at Wolf Creek will peak around 40mph Monday afternoon and then around 50mph Monday night to Wednesday evening.
Temps… On Monday highs will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Highs the rest of this period will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
My snowfall forecast…
Valley below 7,600ft: 8-14”
Valley above 7,600ft: 12-18”
Mountains: 40-50”
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Watch for the Eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft valid from Monday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. It’s for 1-3ft of snow and winds up to 60mph. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Southwest San Juan Mountains valid from 2pm Monday to 2pm Tuesday for 8-16” of snow with locally higher amounts, and winds to 45mph. ***
*** As of Sunday at 4:30pm, nothing has been issued for the Upper San Juan Basin or Pagosa Springs. ***
*** Avalanche danger will increase through the storm. Make sure to check the Colorado Avalanche Information Center for the latest conditions. ***
*** Expect temporary closures on Wolf Creek Pass. Follow COtrip for the latest travel conditions. ***
We’ve got through Monday afternoon to stock up and run errands. Monday night through Thursday morning it would be wise to enjoy the snow from your comfy home!
As always, I’ll tweak the amounts and timing as the storm gets closer and the data gets better.
A HUGE thanks to The Springs Resort for sponsoring this much needed storm!
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 43 | 61 / 1995 | 9 | -20 / 1955 |
Last chance to make a guess in our latest contest: First Thunderstorm within 10 miles of downtown Pagosa Springs. Win a $50 gift certificate for Chow Down! Put your guess on the contest Facebook post or the contest web page post before midnight tonight.
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
I’ll do daily posts through the storm.
– Shawn
3 Responses
It is now 5:56a.m., Monday, February 21, 2022. My wife and I just reviewed your forecast extending through Thursday and have decided to remove you from our Christmas list… unless you are willing to clear our driveway and sidewalk of snow… and walk our dog when the wind is blowing.
Other than the above, have a great day and keep up the good work! We love your forecasts… usually.
Skied Wolfcreek with my nephew yesterday! Thanks for the perfect weather Shawn!! Looks like my wife’s snowblower is going a workout over the next several days!!
My pleasure! Have fun with that snowblower!