Our mountains will get more than TWO FEET of snow!
Saturday – 19 Feb 2022 – 8:30am
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 41 and the low this morning was 12. The peak wind at the airfield was 7mph.
Precip in the last 24 hours… None
High pressure will keep us dry through the weekend. The upper level ridge will move through Sunday afternoon and then southwest flow will push more clouds into the area overnight.
Monday afternoon through Thursday afternoon a low pressure system is expected to slowly move through the Great Basin. Cold air, southwest flow causing orographic lift over our mountains, moisture, and storm energy are lined up to bring us a good round of snow!
Today and tomorrow… Today will be mostly clear. Tomorrow clouds will start increasing and winds will pick up in the afternoon and peak around 15mph.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s and lows will be in the 5 to 20 range.
Monday afternoon through Thursday afternoon… We’ll see more clouds and snow. Expect periods of heavy snow, poor visibility, and bad driving conditions. At times winds will gust 20-25mph causing blowing and drifting snow, especially during the afternoons. Winds up at Wolf Creek will peak around 35mph Monday afternoon and then around 45mph on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
My snowfall forecast…
*** As of Saturday morning, there are no winter weather watches, warnings, or advisories, but I expect those to be issued as the storm gets closer. ***
We’ve got through Monday afternoon to stock up and run errands. Monday night through Thursday morning it would be wise to enjoy the snow from your comfy home!
As always, I’ll tweak the amounts and timing as the storm gets closer and the data gets better.
Summary… For town, forecast models are showing 1-1.4” of liquid equivalent which would result in 10-14” of snow. For the mountains, models are showing 2-3.5” of liquid equivalent which would result in 40-70” of snow. Right now I like 10-14” in the Pagosa area, but I’m being conservative with mountain totals. If the models continue to be consistent, I will increase snowfall amounts!
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|43||63 / 1981||9||-25 / 1942|
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
I’ll do daily posts through the storm.