A slow warming trend with lots of sunshine!

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2-5-22-2:30pm update…

The low this morning at Stevens Field before their weather sensor shut down due to cold temperatures (very frustrating) was 3 degrees, but most of us saw lows below zero again. Our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake dropped to -8 and Shawn and Arleen’s sensor dropped to -10. The high so far today has been 33 degrees. There was no precipitation recorded in our area.

A ridge of high pressure has decided to camp out over the west for the foreseeable future, so any odds of precipitation will be close to nil for at least a week, if not more. Temperatures will slowly rise from below normal to above normal by the end of the week. Expect a lot of sunshine this week!

The long-range models continue to give us some hope for a pattern change around the 17-19th of February, but since we are almost two weeks away, it’s hard to get very excited yet.

Screenshot 2022 02 05 135832 — The latest GFS meteogram model run is predicting some activity for around the 18th or 19th of February, but being 2 weeks away we have to take these models with at least 2-3 grains of salt at this point!

Screenshot 2022 02 05 141209 — The latest EURO 15 day forecast also gives up some hope, but if you look at the blue lines on the graphics, it indicates we could get anywhere from zero to a foot of snow. Not very convincing yet!

Screenshot 2022 02 05 142045 — The latest 8-14 day precipitation forecast puts us in the “Leaning Above” zone. That goes along with some of the long-range models as well.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

The rest of today: Sunny with a high in the mid to upper 30’s. South winds 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear with lows ranging from -5 to the single digits.

Sunday: Sunny with highs in mid to upper 30’s.

Monday-Friday: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s and lows in the single digits to low teens.

My next post will be on Monday.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for February 5th.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
41	60/ 1963	3	-32/ 1915

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Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford

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3 Responses

Rodney (“Rod”) Proffitt says:

February 5, 2022 at 2:47 pm

With La Niña again in control, do our local conditions still reflect a positive snowpack? Is NOAA able to predict potential run-off at this early date – I know run-off was low for the snowpack we had last year so I’m concerned that the same thing might occur this year.

Reply
1. Mark Langford says:
  
  February 5, 2022 at 2:50 pm
  
  Hi Rodney. Please see Shawn’s update from earlier this week… https://pagosaweather.org/2022/01/31/pagosa-weather-january-summary-and-february-outlook/
  
  Reply
  1. Rodney (“Rod”) Proffitt says:
    
    February 5, 2022 at 3:31 pm
    
    Thanks!!
    
    Reply

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