Things are looking up for the Tuesday night/Wednesday system

A bluebird winter day up at Wolf Creek… Web cam 1/29/2022

A bluebird winter day up at Wolf Creek… Web cam 1/29/2022

Saturday – 29 Jan 2022 – 1:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 35 and the low this morning was 5 but temps were missing during the coldest part of morning.  I saw temps as low as -6 in the area.  The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  None

Forecast discussion…

I didn’t plan to do an update today unless something changed.  Well something has changed.  Read on.

Ridging over much of the western US will keep us dry through Monday.

The next system will impact us Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. The models had been fluctuating on the storm track, but the last few runs indicate a more favorable track with more moisture and precip. I bumped up snowfall amounts below.

GeoColor satellite this afternoon: Skies are clear in our area. That’s mostly snow north of the gray line.  There are a few scattered clouds over AZ and NM.  White Sands really stands out and is an excellent landmark.
GeoColor satellite this afternoon: Skies are clear in our area. That’s mostly snow north of the gray line.  There are a few scattered clouds over AZ and NM.  White Sands really stands out and is an excellent landmark.

My forecast…

Today through Monday… Expect lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and high level clouds.  Patchy early morning fog is possible in the low-lying areas. Highs will be in the lower to mid-40s and lows will be 0 to 20.

Tuesday and Wednesday… Clouds will increase through the day on Tuesday. Scattered snowshowers will start in the afternoon over the mountains and over the valley after sunset.  The best chance for snow is late Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon. Scattered snowshowers will linger Wednesday night.

Highs will be in the lower to upper 30s and lows will be 10 to 25. Temps could be 10 degrees colder Wednesday night if clouds clear out sooner than expected.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: 3-6”

– Mountains: 6-12”

Here are the 29/12Z data runs from 4 of the primary forecast models.  1. NBM in the upper left – I like the NBM because it includes data from multiple models.  It says 6.5” in town and up to 12” in our mountains.  2. The Euro model in the upper right – The Euro is often rated the most accurate. It shows 6.9" in town and up to 12" in our mountains. 3. GFS in the bottom left – The GFS is often inconsistent but can go on winning streaks.  Lately it’s been handling things quite well.  It shows 8.7” in town and up to 16” in our mountains. 4. Canadian in the bottom right – The Canadian model really struggles with our southern latitude, but it occasionally has winning streaks too.  I prefer a multi-run ensemble over the single “deterministic” or “control” run, but I look at it for general trends and to compare to the other models.  It shows 8.9” in town and up to 15” in our mountains.
Here are the 29/12Z data runs from 4 of the primary forecast models. These show forecast snowfall to Thursday at 11am.

1. NBM in the upper left – I like the NBM because it includes data from multiple models.  It says 6.5” in town and up to 12” in our mountains. 

2. The Euro model in the upper right – The Euro is often rated the most accurate. It shows 6.9″ in town and up to 12″ in our mountains.

3. GFS in the bottom left – The GFS is often inconsistent but can go on winning streaks.  Lately it’s been handling things quite well.  It shows 8.7” in town and up to 16” in our mountains.

4. Canadian in the bottom right – The Canadian model really struggles with our southern latitude, but it occasionally has winning streaks too.  I prefer a multi-run ensemble over the single “deterministic” or “control” run, but I look at it for general trends and to compare to the other models.  It shows 8.9” in town and up to 15” in our mountains. 

So what does all this mean? The models are lining up pretty good and getting more consistent, so forecast confidence is increasing. We aren’t quite into high resolution model data.  Mark will get a first look at that tomorrow.

Thursday and Friday… Clouds will gradually decrease Thursday and a few spotty snowshowers may linger over the mountains until noon.  Friday will be mostly sunny.  Highs on Thursday will be upper 20s to mid-30s and lows will be -10 to 10. Temps will be a few degrees warmer Friday with highs in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows in the -5 to 15 range.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4054 / 19863-32 / 1909

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will do the next post tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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