A few snowflakes on Saturday – next week is still a mystery…

There is a whole bunch of snow to play in!... Pic taken 1/6/2022

There is a whole bunch of snow to play in!… Pic taken 1/6/2022

Thursday – 6 Jan 2022 – 4:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 41. The low this morning was 12. The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours…  I saw snowshowers over the mountains west through north, but accumulations would be minimal.  Wolf Creek got a dusting.

Forecast discussion…

Saturday a weak trough coming from the west will dip a little farther south and will give us more clouds and scattered snowshowers, especially in the mountains.

The models are struggling with next week.  A cut-off low is expected to meander just off the southern CA coast and may push pieces of energy into the Four Corners area. It looks like the later part of next week will be more active, but forecast confidence is low.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Ridging off the coast is giving us dry, northwest flow.The main low is off the Pacific NW coast. A cut-off low is spinning to the south and may impact us later next week. Side note: It’s bad form to analyze everything in yellow but that shows up best on this map.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Ridging off the coast is giving us dry, northwest flow.The main low is off the Pacific NW coast. A cut-off low is spinning to the south and may impact us later next week.
Side note: It’s bad form to analyze everything in yellow but that shows up best on this map.

My forecast…

Rest of today through tomorrow…  There will be a few clouds and patchy morning fog is possible in the low lying areas.

Tomorrow will be a little warmer with highs in the lower to mid-40s. Lows will be 5 to 25.

Saturday… We’ll see a few more clouds and scattered snowshowers, mostly in the mountains.  The best chance for snow will be during the day. Highs will be in the mid-30s to lower 40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Snowfall amounts…

– Valley: 0 to a half inch

– Mountains: 1-2”

NBM snowfall to Sunday at 5am shows 0.3” in town and up to 2” in our mountains. Again northern Colorado is favored.
NBM snowfall to Sunday at 5am shows 0.3” in town and up to 2” in our mountains. Northern Colorado is favored again.

Sunday through Tuesday… There will be lots of blue sky with occasional patches of mid and upper level clouds.  Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s and lows will be 5 to 20.

Wednesday through Saturday… Maybe more clouds and scattered snowshowers – stay tuned!

NBM snowfall to next Saturday, 15 Jan, and 11pm shows 5.7” in town and 8-12” in our mountains.  Models are all over the place with timing and amounts so forecast confidence is low. Note this includes all snowfall to this point.
NBM snowfall to next Saturday, 15 Jan, at 11pm shows 5.7” in town and 8-12” in our mountains.  Models are all over the place with timing and amounts so forecast confidence is low. Note this includes all snowfall to this point.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3555 / 1956-1-37 / 1971

The first week of January averages are our coldest of the year.

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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