Measuring snow – Just the top 8” of the blue yard stick is poking above the snow… Pic taken 12/31/2021
Friday – 31 Dec 2021 – 10:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 29 and the low was 25. The peak wind at the airfield was 20mph. We were gusting around 20mph most of the night in O’Neal Park.
Precip in the last 24 hours… 1” to 3” of snow fell in valley – I expected double that. The explanation is below.
Wolf Creek reported 13” of new snow in the last 24 hours. They now have 106” of snow since it started falling on the 23rd!
Tomorrow or Sunday, I‘ll include a storm cycle summary in my daily post. I’ll also do a separate post to summarize December and provide a January outlook.
Wolf Creek Pass has been closed a few times this week due to poor visibility, strong winds, and avalanche mitigation. More closures are possible through tomorrow morning. Keep an eye on COtrip for the latest travel conditions: COtrip web page
Forecast discussion…
So far this system has been disappointing. It’s moving slower than expected and we’re between the trough to the northwest and the low to the southwest. That will change later today as the two join forces to give us good snow. It will snow off and on through the day and a good chunk of the night and then taper off tomorrow morning as the system moves to our east.
Starting Sunday, ridging will build in and give us quiet weather for 5-7 days. Upper level flow will turn more northwesterly and dry out for us – a more typical La Nina pattern.
My forecast…
Today through Tomorrow afternoon… Intermittent mostly light snow will fall into the afternoon in the valley and then ramp up around sunset. Moderate to heavy snow will fall in the mountains all day and most of the night. Then snowshowers will become more scattered tomorrow morning and linger until around noon in the valley and into the afternoon in the mountains.
The windy spots in the valley will peak around 25mph into the evening and around 50mph in the mountains.
High temps will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s. Lows tonight will be tonight 5 to 15.
Snowfall during this period…
– Valley: 6-12”
– Mountains: 20-30”
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the San Juan Basin, which includes Pagosa Springs, valid to 5am tomorrow morning. It’s for 6-12” of snow and winds to 30mph. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains valid to 11am Saturday. It’s for 12-24” of snow with localized amounts up to 3ft and winds to 50mph. *** Wolf Creek will total around 3ft!
*** The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has issued an AVALANCHE WARNING valid until Sunday morning at 8am. *** Avalanche conditions will remain very dangerous for the next few days.
Late tomorrow afternoon through Thursday… Clouds will gradually clear tomorrow afternoon leading to our first glimpse of the mountains. Have your camera ready for sunset tomorrow and sunrise on Sunday! We’ll see a lot of sun the rest of the period. Patchy morning fog is possible in the low lying areas.
Temps will start well below average on Saturday and then warm to average by Monday. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper teens to mid-20s, on Sunday in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and in the 30s the rest of the period. Lows Saturday night will be -15 to 0, Sunday and Monday nights -10 to 10, and then -5 to 15 the rest of the period.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 35 | 56 / 1980 | 1 | -26 / 1911 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
One Response
Hey Shawn,
I just wanted to let you know how much I enjoy reading your daily forecasts. I grew up a “weather geek” also, but not on your level. Still, at Christmas time I often received books relating to weather. Anyway, I wanted to tell you how much I appreciate you throwing in comments about potential good times for a beautiful sunrise or sunset as I am a photographer.
Keep up the good work and thanks.
Ben