Pagosa Weather NOVEMBER SUMMARY and December outlook

3 Responses

1. Shawn, I appreciate the monthly updates as much as any content on the site, so please don’t let this discourage you, but if I’m not understanding this wrong, there’s a mischaracterization of the data here.

   The caption for the precipitation graph: “Precip in November was less than 25% below average for most of Archuleta County”

   Less than 25% below average would be close to average. More than 75% below average is what the data appear to show. Or below the threshold of 25% average precipitation, which is likely what you meant.

   Unrelated, from memory, the drought categories seem to have slowly/slightly improved over the last year in Archuleta County, but we also had below average winter snow and monsoon rain this year. This leaves me wondering:
   Is average or below average precipitation enough to somewhat abate worse drought conditions?
   And above average precip would simply bring relief faster?
   How far below average did the precipitation have to be previously to cause the drought from whenever we were last in normal conditions?
   How much of the snowfall melts and is absorbed by the ground rather than evaporating in the sun?

   Maybe someone could do a post on some of these ideas at some point. Thanks for the blog!

   Reply

   1. Bob, thanks so much for the feedback and wonderful questions!

      I agree that November precip was “more than 75% below average” – good catch. It’s been corrected on the web page.

      Drought conditions…

      I just compared current drought conditions to last year’s at this time. Your memory is accurate. Conditions are slightly better this year.

      To answer your questions: “Is average or below average precipitation enough to somewhat abate worse drought conditions?
      And above average precip would simply bring relief faster?” There are a whole bunch of variables and caveats, but generally below average precip worsens drought conditions, average precip maintains drought conditions, and above average precip improves drought conditions. The timing, length of time, and type of precip are three of the main variables. Examples: An above average monsoon does not have as much impact as above average snowpack. A cool moist spring that helps snowpack last well into June is very beneficial while a dry warm spring with most of the snowpack gone in May is detrimental. The length and severity of the drought also play a role. A long severe drought often requires a longer period of above average precip to improve.

      Always with weather, there are exceptions. Just a few winters ago, 2018-2019, much of the state got 150% or more of the average snowpack and snow continued to fall through May. I did a Facebook post on 23 May 2019. Snowpack for the state was 240%. Our nearby basins were at 323% and 374%. The Colorado drought map had nothing – the first time since those products began in 2000, according to the Colorado Climate Center.

      So one big winter can wipe out severe drought conditions but it’s rare. It usually takes a string of above average winters and at least an average monsoon or two.

      Another general rule of thumb regarding droughts… They are slow develop and slow to improve.

      Your next question: “How far below average did the precipitation have to be previously to cause the drought from whenever we were last in normal conditions?” Again there are lots of variables with duration (time period) and amount of precip being two of the biggest. There are certainly correlations: precip well below average will impact drought conditions quicker than precip slightly below average. My knowledge is basic so I can only speak in generalities.

      Your last question: “How much of the snowfall melts and is absorbed by the ground rather than evaporating in the sun?” I really like this question and would love to have a specific answer. I’ve seen a couple of recent studies that point towards an ever worsening loop related to climate change. Those studies indicate more snowpack is being absorbed, evaporated, or sublimated where it falls instead of flushing through the system via runoff. Then there is more bare ground for longer periods leading to a self-feeding negative loop.

      To fix our long term drought problems, we need multiple years of above average precip. I try to stay optimistic, but I think the bad years will continue to outnumber the good years leading to worsening conditions. Thankfully a winter like 2018-2019 can be much needed reset!

      Thanks again Bob for the feedback and questions! Feel free to email us related articles or studies: pagosaweather@gmail.com

      – Shawn

      Reply

      1. All right! Thanks for that thorough reply. Yeah I hope the bad years don’t outnumber the good or turn Pagosa into a desert.

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