Trying to find snow in our weather crystal ball!

Crystal Ball

Last year we had to wait until December 13th for our first decent snow storm…will that be the case this year?

11-28-21: 1 pm update…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 55 and the low this morning has been 24 degrees. Our home in “Little Siberia”, about a mile north of Hatcher Lake, hit 16 degrees this morning. There has been zero precipitation over the past 24 hours. Our average low should be 8 degrees and our high should be 43 degrees.

High pressure will be in control for the next week with high temperatures rising to near or exceeding record territory on Monday and Tuesday. A couple of shortwaves will trek to our north and could drop a few flakes in northern Colorado, but for us, nothing but ditto weather ahead.

Looking further down the road, I’m finally starting to see some potential signs for some precipitation the week of the 5th-12th. As of this post, the GFS model gives us a big storm from the 6th-8th of December while the EURO’s latest run is wimpy wimpy. It’s hard to understand how diverse models can be when we are now only 7 days out, but we have seen this time and time again. Hopefully as the week rolls on we will start to see some form of model consensus!

Screenshot 2021 11 28 081441
This morning’s national radar shows mainly a dry USA…especially over the SW.
Screenshot 2021 11 28 081919
Temperatures will be running around 20 degrees above normal on Monday and Tuesday giving us a chance for new record high temperatures.
Screenshot 2021 11 28 123908
The latest GFS model run shows a very strong storm moving in on Monday the 6th-8th, giving us around a foot of snow. This same model did this yesterday, then forecast almost zero snow on this morning’s run.
Screenshot 2021 11 28 123742
The latest EURO model run is predicting very little if any snow from the 6th-8th.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

The rest of today: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 50’s. Winds will out of the SW 5-10 mph.

Monday-Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in upper 50’s to low 60’s. We could see some record highs in the low 60’s on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be out of the SW 5-10 with a few gusts approaching 20 mph.

Saturday-Sunday: Continued mostly sunny with above normal temps ranging from the teens and 20’s for lows and highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds will be out of the SW 5-10 with a few gusts approaching 20 mph.

My next update will be on Tuesday.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 8th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4361/ 19668-15/ 1952

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