More of the same in the short term…

Snowstick

I set up my jumbo size snow yardstick (4 feet) in my backyard yesterday hoping it would bring us some good luck soon!

11-30-21: 12:15 pm update…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 59 degrees, setting a new record for the day. The old record was 58 degrees set back in 1973. The low this morning was 25 degrees and we could see another record high (58 degrees) fall this afternoon as we approach 60 degrees again. There has been zero precipitation over the past 24 hours.

We continue to wait for a weather trigger to bring us our next round of precipitation and I may have finally found one for next week on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking over the latest model data, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Pacific NW, then drift southeastward into the four corners, shifting our upper-level winds into the SW and providing the atmospheric moisture we need to generate precipitation. This is an evolving storm so I will continue to watch the ever-changing models over the next few days.

High pressure will continue to be in control through Monday of next week with high temperatures continuing 15-20 degrees above normal.

Screenshot 2021 11 30 105806
NW flow aloft continues to keep our atmosphere dry (indicated in yellow).
Screenshot 2021 11 30 110303
Temperatures continue to run around 20 degrees above normal. We could set a record high again this afternoon.
500wh.conus
The latest models are forecasting a potential upper-level low and associated trough to move into the four corners region by Tuesday. This should tap into some mid-level moisture and give us a chance for snow on Tuesday and early Wednesday.

My forecast…

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are currently experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try! Let us know what you think…

The rest of today: Sunny with highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. We could see a record high this afternoon. Winds will out of the SW 5-10 mph.

Wednesday-Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds will be out of the SW 5-10 with a few gusts approaching 20 mph.

Tuesday-Wednesday of next week: There is a chance for snow from Tuesday through early Wednesday as a potential upper-level low impacts our area. As of this post I’m seeing 1-3 inches of snow for the valley and 4-8 inches for the mountains.

My next update will be on Thursday.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 8th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4458/ 19569-14/ 1975

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4 Responses

  1. Mark, Whatever happened to the radar that they were going to install in Durango? Thanks for all you do weatherwise for PGS.
    Randall

    1. It’s still trying to find a home…there was an article in the Durango paper a few weeks ago and there is no telling how long it will be before they find the right location. Very frustrating!

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