Perfect weather through the weekend…

Meet Delilah, a two year old Border Collie mix girl, looking for a home!

Meet Delilah, a two year old Border Collie mix girl, looking for a home!

Wednesday – 22 Sep 2021 – 9:15am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 72 and the low this morning was 33. Yesterday morning temps bottomed out in the mid-20s for some folks.  The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 22mph. On Monday winds peaked at 30mph.  There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

A transient high pressure ridge will move through the region today.  Then a weak trough will try to move through Thursday and Friday.  Other than a few more clouds and an isolated shower or two over the mountains, we’ll hardly notice the trough. Over the weekend we’ll be between a cut-off low to the southwest and a ridge to the north and the great weather will continue.

Beyond the weekend the models diverge.  Some show the pattern getting more active while others indicate that this perfect weather will stick around.

GeoColor satellite this morning: There are hardly any clouds over the Four Corners region.  The ridge just to our west will move through the region today.  The yellow arrows indicate the potential track of the trough currently over the Pacific Northwest.  The forecast models are in disagreement about the track, the intensity, the moisture, and the precip.
GeoColor satellite this morning: There are hardly any clouds over the Four Corners region.  The ridge just to our west will move through the region today.  The yellow arrows indicate the potential track of the trough currently over the Pacific Northwest.  The forecast models are in disagreement about the track, the intensity, the moisture, and the precip.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… We’ll see a few more clouds tomorrow and Friday, otherwise expect lots of sun. There’s a slight chance for an isolated shower over the mountains Thursday and Friday afternoons, but most of the area will remain dry.  Highs will be in the lower to upper 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 40s. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph.

22 Sep 2021 am NBM precip
NBM precip through Sunday at midnight indicates none in our area.
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows up to 0.25” in our mountains.  I think this is too optimistic but I see potential for a shower or two over the mountains.
Euro precip through Sunday at midnight shows up to 0.25” in our mountains.  I think this is too optimistic but I see potential for a shower or two over the mountains.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7185 / 19853423 / 1983
Fall colors are just starting to change in the high country.  This is near Big Meadows yesterday afternoon. I think we’re about 2 weeks from the peak in Pagosa Country.  Pic taken 9/21/2021
Fall colors are just starting to change in the high country.  This is near Big Meadows yesterday afternoon. I think we’re about 2 weeks from the peak in Pagosa Country.  Pic taken 9/21/2021

My next post will be on Friday. – Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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