Rain odds will slowly ramp up…

Storm

I shot this lightning photo last Monday (Aug. 2nd). Hopefully we will see more storms over the next week.

8-10-21: 8:45am update

Our air quality health advisory ends at 9am this morning as mid-level winds have shifted to the SW, cutting us off the main smoke flow from the Dixie fire in northern CA. It was great to see our nearby mountains again yesterday afternoon as the smoke started clearing in our area! While most of the smoke has left our area, we will be watching the 800 acre Amargo fire to our south (west of Dulce, NM) that started over the weekend due to lightning. If winds switch to the south, this could bring smoke back into Pagosa Springs.

Screenshot 2021 08 10 080325
Here is the latest EPA Air Quality graphic as of 8am. Mid-level winds have switched into the SW and our air quality is looking much better than it has over the past days.
Screenshot 2021 08 10 072653
While most of the smoke has left our area, we will be watching the 800 acre Amargo fire to our south (west of Dulce, NM) that started over the weekend due to lightning. If winds switch to the south, this could bring smoke back into Pagosa Springs.
Screenshot 2021 08 10 072428
The latest HRRR model shows our current smoke situation (very low) and picks up on the Amargo fire to our south.
Screenshot 2021 08 10 074930
An upper level low over southern AZ is sending some mid-level moisture and some clouds into our area this morning.

Over the next several days we will be slowly working our way into a monsoon pattern again. In the short term, extra moisture in the mid-levels from an upper level low in southern AZ along with a rise in precipitable water will allow for scattered afternoon storms to develop starting this afternoon. Rain odds will continue to be low for the workweek but should start ramping up this weekend.

Screenshot 2021 08 10 072723
It’s nice to see the 3 day NWS rainfall forecast graphic turning green again!

My forecast…

The rest of today…A slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms with highs in the low 80’s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be from the SSW from 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoon. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. Rain totals will range from 0-0.05.

Wednesday-Friday: Continued scattered storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Rain odds will increase as we move closer to the weekend. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. Rain totals will range from 0-0.20 through the period. As usual, there will be rain lottery winners and losers!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 10th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8289 / 19724628 / 1956

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