Smoke will be waning and a there is a chance it could be raining!

Sunflower

I’m tired of posting smoke photos! Here’s one of a sunflower growing in our backyard…

8-9-21: 1pm update

AIR QUALITY HEALTH ADVISORY FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM 800 AM MONDAY UNTIL 900 AM TUESDAY… The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment has issued the following… WHAT…Air Quality Health Advisory for Wildfire Smoke. WHERE…Moffat, Routt, Jackson, Grand, Rio Blanco, Garfield, Eagle, Summit, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Mesa, Pitkin, Lake, Park, Delta, Gunnison, Chaffee, Fremont, Montrose, San Miguel, Ouray, Hinsdale, Saguache, Custer, Dolores, Montezuma, San Juan, La Plata, Mineral, Archuleta, Rio Grande, Alamosa, Conejos, and Costilla. Locations include, but are not limited to Craig, Steamboat Springs, Walden, Hot Sulphur Springs, Meeker, Glenwood Springs, Eagle, Breckenridge, Central City, Georgetown, Grand Junction, Aspen, Leadville, Fairplay, Delta, Gunnison, Salida, Canon City, Montrose, Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Saguache, Westcliffe, Dove Creek, Cortez, Silverton, Durango, Creede, Pagosa Springs, Del Norte, Alamosa, Conejos, and San Luis. WHEN…800 AM Monday August 09 to 900 AM Tuesday August 10 IMPACTS..

Heavy smoke from California wildfires will continue to move into Colorado on Monday, affecting western and central Colorado on Monday and Tuesday. Expect the heaviest smoke impacts in sheltered valley locations where atmospheric mixing is more limited. Some clearing is possible in areas of southern Colorado on Monday and Tuesday, however residual health impacts may linger from prolonged exposure to elevated smoke concentrations. HEALTH INFORMATION…Public Health Recommendations: If smoke is thick or becomes thick in your neighborhood you may want to remain indoors. This is especially true for those with heart disease, respiratory illnesses, the very young, and the elderly. Consider limiting outdoor activity when moderate to heavy smoke is present. Consider relocating temporarily if smoke is present indoors and is making you ill. If visibility is less than 5 miles in smoke in your neighborhood, smoke has reached levels that are unhealthy.

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Here is the latest EPA Air Quality graphic as of 12:30pm. Zonal flow (W-E) will be clearing out much of our smoke over the next couple of days.
Screenshot 2021 08 09 111534
Most of our smoke woes can be blamed on the huge Dixie Fire in northern CA. Unfortunately, it’s still only 21% contained as of this morning. Zonal flow will help us out this week since the fire is to our NW and upper level winds will be switching to the West.
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The latest HRRR model shows quite a lot of improvement by tomorrow (Tuesday). We will still have some smoke with us all week, but with zonal flow (W-E), it will be reduced considerably.
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More chilly lows this morning! My home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake hit 38 degrees along with the sensor to the NE of town.

We saw some lows in our area dip to the upper 30’s this morning. Our highs have rebounded to low 80’s as I write this post. We are already seeing some improvement in visibility as our upper level winds shift into a zonal flow (west-east), keeping the worst of the smoke to our north. Rain odds will continue to be tiny over the next three days as indicated by the latest NWS rainfall forecast graphic below, however there will be some very isolated afternoon scattered storms starting on Tuesday. High pressure will start building over us on Wednesday, switching us into a SW flow and allowing some moisture to feed into our area but the best odds for rain will stay in NW and AZ. As of right now, rain odds don’t appear to start ramping up until this weekend. We should only see scattered and isolated afternoon storms through the rest of the workweek…but it’s nice to see rain back in the forecast!

Screenshot 2021 08 09 124317
While we are still in the zero precipitation zone for the next 3 days, there are signs that we will slowly move into a monsoon pattern by later this week and into the weekend.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A 100% chance for smoke with highs in the low 80’s under partly cloudy skies (if you can see them).

Tuesday-Friday: The smoke should begin to wane a bit as the week progresses. By Tuesday, very scattered afternoon storms begin to enter the forecast. Lows will range from the 40’s (unless you live in a cold spot) and highs in the low 80’s. Rain odds will build as we move closer to the weekend. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 20mph in the afternoons.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 9th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8290 / 19694529 / 1956

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