Looks good for a soaking this week! …

It rained pretty heavily in the Upper Piedra yesterday afternoon roughly 1-2pm. Pic taken 7/17/2021

It rained pretty heavily in the Upper Piedra area yesterday afternoon roughly 1-2pm.  Pic taken 7/17/2021

Sunday – 18 Jul 2021 – 9:15am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 84 and the low this morning was 51. Yesterday’s peak wind was 25mph. Typical of afternoon convective activity, precip was spotty. Most locations got less than 0.10”.  The upper Piedra area got around 0.25” and the big rain lottery winner was Devil Mountain with 1.12”!  A cell parked and then regenerated (we call it “training”) in the Devil Mountain/Chimney Rock area.  Stationary and “training” cells this time of year are always possible and can result in very heavy rains in short periods and lead to flash-flooding.

24-hour precip totals vary from 0.01” to 1.12”.
24-hour precip totals vary from 0.01” to 1.12”.

*** Reminder… There is still a Stage 1 Fire Ban in effect. ***

The upper level high pressure is wobbling over the Four Corners region.  It’s currently to our north resulting in weak northeast flow over us.  Regarding the monsoon, that high should be to our east and giving us south to southwest flow, but thankfully there is plenty of moisture and instability to give us the same result.  Also thankfully, the closer we get to the end of the month, the more it looks like an actual monsoonal pattern for us.  The forecast models that go out to two weeks expect above average precip. 

Satellite this morning shows weak northeast flow into our area (indicated by yellow arrows) around the high centered to our north.  We are on the edge of the monsoonal moisture so we’ll continue to see afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite this morning shows weak northeast flow into our area (indicated by yellow arrows) around the high centered to our north.  We are on the edge of the monsoonal moisture so we’ll continue to see afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Each morning we’ll wake up to mostly clear skies and then watch the clouds build as it warms up.  In the high country the first showers and thunderstorms can develop between 11 and noon and over the valley between 1 and 2pm.  The best chance for showers and thunderstorms is 2 to 6pm with a lesser chance until midnight.  Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible.

Highs will be near 80 to the mid-80s.  Lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town, and up to 1.00” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town, and up to 1.00” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Saturday… Increased moisture and instability will lead to a more active period with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday, precipitable water is 150% of average – that’s pretty high for us. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. Be leery of flooding in low-lying areas and flash floods near drainages and streams.

Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though isolated convective gusts to 40mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

18 Jul 2021 am Euro precip
Euro precip through Saturday at midnight shows 0.50” to 0.75” in the valley and up to 2.75” in our mountains.  Other forecast models show double that amount in the valley.  It’s all convective precip so amounts will vary.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8392 / 19094635 / 1958

I’ll do another update tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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