More of the same, then finally what looks like a monsoon!

Hikers

Hikers enjoying Coyote Loop Trail with very little smoke this morning.

7-17-21: 9am update…

If you went to bed early (like I did) you probably missed out on a shower that moved through our area around 10pm. I was surprised to find 0.10 of rainfall in my gauge this morning about a mile north of Hatcher Lake!

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COCORAHS 24 hour rainfall totals.
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Remote sensor 24 hour rainfall totals.

High pressure will slowly migrate to the four corners today allowing for both surface moisture and mid-level moisture to flow into our area from the SW. Look for a slight increase in thunderstorm activity today and tomorrow. Storms will be moving from west to east.

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Mid-level and low level moisture is moving into our area from the SW this weekend.

We will continue to see afternoon thunderstorms this weekend and into next week. By the middle of next week, a more traditional monsoon flow is forecast to set up and rain odds and totals are likely to start ramping up for the rest of the month!

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The latest EURO model is quite optimistic that our monsoon will return starting this week.

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The latest 8-14 day forecast from NOAA indicates an “above average” probability for precipitation.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A good chance for scattered afternoon storms with highs in the lower 80s. Look for storms to your west, moving east today.

Sunday-early next week: Continued chances for afternoon thunderstorms. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers. Each day we could see 0-0.25 inches of rain with double that total in the mountains. Lows will remain in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and highs in the 80’s. By mid-week we could see our traditional monsoon season move in with better odds for rain and higher rain totals! Shawn takes over tomorrow and will keep us posted.

For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions when storms move in! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8391 / 19104735 / 1948

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