Best odds for rain this week are today…

While Pagosa Springs is not in a Flash Flood Watch today, most of our surrounding mountains and points to our south and east are.

7-14-21: 8:30am update…

As I watched the radar loop yesterday, I became increasingly depressed as storms built to our north and west, then went “poof”! Fortunately this rain event is being fueled by a shortwave trough (closer to a winter scenario) and not just our typical summer afternoon heat storms. While heating is a factor, the shortwave and plenty of surface moisture will be enough for storms to form this afternoon and evening. The shortwave trough should move through our area by tomorrow but there will be plenty of leftover moisture to ignite our typical scattered storms the rest of the week.

During the night, my backyard rain gauge found 0.10 of rainfall about a mile north of Hatcher Lake. No one in our immediate area recorded any heavy rain, but I see a COCORAHS report from Chromo of nearly an inch over the past 24 hours….clearly the rain lotter winner of the day!

Screenshot 2021 07 14 073953
Remote sensor 24 hour rainfall totals for Archuleta County.
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A rain lottery winner near Chromo recorded nearly an inch of rain over the past 24 hours! Some nice totals to our west near Durango will help with lowering fire danger.

Our shortwave trough will continue to slowly move east today. Relatively high dew points and PWAT (precipitable water) values over an inch will give us a good chance for rain over the next 24 hours.

Screenshot 2021 07 14 074303
Deep moisture in the midlevel and surface will be give us a good chance for rain this afternoon and evening as a shortwave approaches from the west.
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The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast.

My forecast…

The rest of today…A good chance for storms not only this afternoon, but into the evening. Movement of the storms will be east, so look to the west (if you can see through the smoke). Speaking of the smoke, it should start slowly diminishing throughout the day.

Thursday-Saturday: A good chance for storms through Thursday. As is the case with convective activity, there will be rain lottery winners and losers but I think by Thursday night most of us will have found at least 0.40 of rain in our gauges with some of you finding over an inch. As usual, the mountains will see about double those totals. Lows will remain in the 40’s and highs will drop to the upper 70’s today through Thursday due to increased cloud cover and rain. High temps will ramp back up to the 80’s on Friday and Saturday with more sunshine and less storm coverage. As high pressure builds back in our area, rain odds decrease the rest of the week but there will be a continued chance for PM Poppers. The models are looking bullish for more rain next week…I’ll continue to monitor them!

For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions when storms move in! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning is always a possibility.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8391 / 19724530 / 1948

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3 Responses

  1. That heavy rain in Chromo came partially in the form of bruising hail. Still have piles of it this morning.

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