Ditto weather for the next few days..

Towering cumulus

A towering cumulus drifts over Pagosa Peak yesterday afternoon.

7-1-21: 9am update: Rain chances continue with warmer afternoons. My next post will be July 3rd.

Yesterday was almost a bust for our area with most of us recording under 0.01 of rainfall except for the Chromo area. In the short term we will continue to be in a drier midlevel moisture zone as we are under the influence of an upper level low in northern Utah. Higher moisture in the mid levels will stay to our east and south today and tomorrow. Over the next 48 hours, high pressure will move into our area from Texas, increasing our temperatures but increasing the odds for afternoon storms due to warmer air and instability.

Screenshot 2021 06 27 064159
COCORAHS reports from yesterday were pretty wimpy except for the Chromo area.
Screenshot 2021 06 30 075243
Mid level water vapor imagery shows that we are in the yellow zone (drier air aloft) as compared to the blue and white areas to our south and east. While we will still see thunderstorms develop this afternoon, most of the activity will be east and south of us.
Screenshot 2021 06 30 075417
The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast for our area.

My forecast…

Today…Partly cloudy this morning with scattered storms building up again this afternoon. Look for storms to move from SW to NE today. Wind gusts to around 15mph except higher in and around the storms. Highs will peak in the upper 70’s, then drop back to the 40’s overnight. I think precipitation totals through this afternoon will range from 0-0.20 for our area and about double that for the mountains. Since these will be scattered storms there will be rain lottery winners and losers as usual. For any of you visiting our area, watch out for rapidly changing weather conditions! Temps can drop 20 degrees in minutes, winds can gust to 40mph and lightning is always a possibility.

Parade Day (July 3rd). I don’t see any issues for our downtown parade as it will wrap up around noon. Just as today, there will be a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Temps during the parade will range from the 60’s at the beginning to the lower 80’s by the end. Don’t forget to douse yourself in sunscreen!

July 4th Weekend: Look for a chance for afternoon thunderstorms throughout the holiday weekend. Temps will range from the 40’s for lows and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. While storms will become more scattered, rain will continue to be in our forecast through the weekend and into next week.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8392/ 19904129 / 1968

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