More chances for PM Poppers…

Red Flag Warning

From our NWS: Red Flag Warning issued June 18 at 2:06AM MDT until June 18 at 9:00PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO * AFFECTED AREA…In Colorado, Fire Weather Zone 291 Northern San Juan Forecast Area, Fire Weather Zone 293 Gunnison Basin Forecast Area and Fire Weather Zone 295 Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area. In Utah, Fire Weather Zone 485 Eastern Ashley National Forest. * IMPACTS…Conditions will be favorable for easy ignition and rapid spread of fires due to lightning from dry thunderstorms. * THUNDERSTORMS…Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening with lightning and gusty outflow winds the primary concerns. * OUTFLOW WINDS…Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any showers or thunderstorms. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.

6-18-21: 9am update…Some of us got some rain yesterday!

Scattered poppers produced some rain lottery winners and losers yesterday. Moisture trapped under high pressure will continue to give us a chance for afternoon thunderstorms through Sunday. By next week, a trough will switch us into a dry northwesterly flow and rain odds will go “poof” in the short term.

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Rain lottery winners on Thursday. The highest total on this graphic was 0.32, however Steve Cox reported 0.40.
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Moisture trapped in the mid levels (blue and white) will continue to give us a chance for PM Poppers.
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Smoke will continue to impact our air and mountain viewing quality but will be a little less thick over the next couple of days.

A lot of you have been wondering about when or if our monsoon season will begin. While the latest NWS long range outlook continues to look drier than normal, I did see this latest EURO 45 day forecast yesterday. If this verifies, then we could see 4 inches of rain by the end of July. It’s just one model, but nice to see something positive!

The latest 45 day EURO rainfall forecast looks very promising for a wet July. ENS Mean shows the potential for 4 inches of rain.

We hit another record high of 90 degrees at Stevens Airfield yesterday and most of us saw lower 90’s before the storms moved in. I think our high temps will drop to the upper 80’s due to more clouds this afternoon so I don’t anticipate the record of 93 will be challenged.

My forecast…

The rest of the day…Partly cloudy with wildly scattered storms building up again this afternoon. Wind gusts to around 20mph except higher in and around the storms. Highs will peak in the upper 80’s, then drop back to upper 40’s and low 50’s overnight. If storms hold off until later this afternoon, we may see some low 90’s again.

Saturday through Sunday: Look for our highs to continue to run above average but hopefully stay in the 80’s. Lows will continue to range from the upper 40’s to 50’s. Scattered afternoon storms will continue through Sunday, then go poof next week. I think precipitation totals through Sunday afternoon will be 0.05-0.20 for our area and about double that for the mountains. Since these will be scattered storms there will be rain lottery winners and losers as usual.

For those of you who have enjoyed some of the images that I have posted on this site, I am now offering private photo tutoring in 3 hour sessions in Pagosa Springs, CO. I have over 30 years of professional experience and can teach you about a wide range of photo subjects; including composition, lighting, basic camera knowledge, landscapes, storms, wildlife, architecture, food and environmental portraiture. Reply on this page with your contact info if you want more information!

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Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8093 / 19543622 / 1950

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