Our rain window will be open longer!

Showers on the peak

Clouds are towering over Pagosa Peak this afternoon thanks to our upper level low.

5-17-21: 2pm Update…And so it begins.

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At 1:20pm we have our first lightning strike near Mill Creek Road and the intersection of 160 and 84.

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Infrared shows a batch of moisture moving NW around the upper level low near Winslow, AZ. The low is slowly moving ENE.

Our upper level low located near Winslow, AZ will slowly track ENE over the next couple of days giving us a chance for showers, thunderstorms and even some snow in the higher elevations. This low will be a slow mover with our best odds for precipitation coming on Tuesday but showers and thunderstorms will remain in our forecast through Wednesday.

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The latest NWS precipitation forecast for our area over the next 3 days.
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The latest NWS snowfall forecast for our area over the next 3 days.

After a brief lull on Wednesday night and Thursday, showers and thunderstorms return again…this time from a strong low that will develop to our NW. Unlike the smaller upper level low that is impacting our weather in the early part of the week, this one will stay in place and set us up for several days of SW flow until it retreats to the NE on Sunday.

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A whopper low will set up in Nevada on Thursday and put us in a SW flow through Saturday.

My forecast…

Today through Wednesday… A chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Best odds will be on Tuesday. High temps will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.  Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range, though stronger isolated gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms. Look for 0.10-0.30 of precipitation for the valley and 0.20-0.40 for the mountains with some of that falling as snow. As we always remind everyone, this will be a convective system so you could get a half of an inch of rain in 15 minutes while your friend a mile away gets zero!

Thursday through Saturday: Look for another chance for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday afternoon through Saturday as a closed low to our NW puts us in a SW flow during that time frame. Next weekend looks windy with winds gusting to 30-40mph each day. As of this post I see 0.20-0.40 of precipitation for the valley and 0.30-0.50 for the mountains with some of that falling as snow.

-Mark Langford

Now that I have Starlink, I’m broadcasting my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) during the day. It’s pretty fun to view with storms in our area.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6982 / 19883015 / 1916

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4 Responses

  1. Thanks for all the updates. I check for them daily. I’m actually curious how starlink is working for you? Good speeds? Reliable?

    1. Speeds are fantastic (around 200 mbps) but there are times of 1 minute drops. From what I hear from people to our north who have had theirs for longer, the drops will become far and few between. There is no comparison with the crappy speeds from Century Link and I don’t have to worry about their crews cutting into our communication lines!

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