Nothing boring about our weather this week!

Red Flag Warning

Yet another Red Flag Warning has been issued for our area today.

4-26-21: 9:30pm update. Wind, a cold front, a chance for snow/rain and then temps in the 70’s…

An approaching trough-low pressure cold front combo are heading our way this morning from the NW. Ahead of this system, our surface winds will pick up from the SW, giving us wind gusts approaching or exceeding 40mph this afternoon.

Screenshot 2021 04 26 085032
Here comes our trough!
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We are surrounded by Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories.
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This afternoon’s wind gusts will approach 40mph.

Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon and by tonight we should see our first round of rain-snow. As of this post, it looks like our best chances for precipitation will be tomorrow as mid level winds tap into moisture from SW flow. Precipitation will fall as rain-snow combo in the morning, then mainly rain in the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to hit the mid 40’s under mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will fall into the 20’s tonight and remain there through Thursday. Highs will be in the 50’s today, 40’s tomorrow, 50’s on Wednesday and 60’s on Thursday. By Friday, our highs should break the 70 barrier and by this weekend, downtown may approach 80 degrees. If these temperatures verify, look out for our local rivers and creeks to start rising quickly. Shawn will address this more when he takes over on Thursday.

Screenshot 2021 04 26 083004
SW flow mid level winds will tap into moisture on Tuesday.

Although most of our precipitation will fall on Tuesday, we will continue to see some rain/snow showers through Wednesday. Because this system will be a slow mover, rain-snow totals will be a little higher than originally thought.

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NWS forecast liquid precipitation totals from this storm.

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NWS forecast snowfall totals from this storm.

My Forecast: I think most of the valley and near mountain areas will see 0.20-0.30 of liquid precipitation for totals from this storm (through Wednesday) with some accumulation of snow for the near mountain locations possible on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. The mountains should see 2-5 inches of snow. There could be some thunderstorms thrown into the mix on Tuesday and Wednesday, but odds are pretty low.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6274 / 19962612 / 1964

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