Spotty mountain showers and windy this week

I just see clear skies and beautiful snow-covered mountains this morning - 4/19/2021 at 6:45am

I just see clear skies and beautiful snow-covered mountains this morning  – 4/19/2021 at 6:45am

Monday – 19 Apr 2021 – 8:00am

Overall situation…

At the airfield the high yesterday was 51 and the low this morning was 25.  Our low was 20 just north of Turkey Springs – 5-6 degrees warmer than I expected.  Our peak wind yesterday afternoon was 21mph.

*** There is a Red Flag Warning valid today, Monday, noon to 9pm.  “A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.” ***

A frontal system will move from north to south across Colorado today.  There is hardly any moisture with it, and by the time it reaches us, there will be even less.  The mountains might get up to an inch of snow this evening, but I don’t expect anything in the valley.

This week we will be in an in-between pattern.  A couple of weak, moisture-starved systems will move through and keep the atmosphere just unstable enough to kick up a few isolated afternoon showers.  Thursday and Friday look like our best chance for a little precip. Unfortunately, the pesky spring winds will stay with us.

Satellite shows clear skies over most of the Four Corners region.
Satellite shows clear skies over most of the Four Corners region. 

My forecast…

Today through Wednesday… Scattered cumulus clouds will develop each afternoon.  There is a slight chance for a couple of them to build into showers over the mountains, especially this afternoon and evening. Afternoon winds will peak in the 25-35mph range.  High temps will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s.

The National Weather Service 72-hour precip shows less than a tenth of an inch in our mountains and nothing in the valley.
The National Weather Service 72-hour precip shows less than a tenth of an inch in our mountains and nothing in the valley.

Thursday and Friday… Expect partly cloudy skies and a chance for afternoon showers, especially over the mountains.  High temps will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Afternoon winds will peak in the 20-30mph range.  Unfortunately with the dry air and gusty winds, fire danger will remain high.

The GFS precip through Friday at midnight shows up to 0.10” in the valley and 0.40” to 0.80” in our mountains.
The GFS precip through Friday at midnight shows up to 0.10” in the valley and 0.40” to 0.80” in our mountains.
The Euro precip through Friday at midnight shows up to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.40” in our mountains.
The Euro precip through Friday at midnight shows up to 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.40” in our mountains.

Note: This is convective/showery precip so it will be spotty. Some spots could get none while others could get more than the models indicate.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6076 / 19542611 / 1963

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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