Great weather through the weekend!

Last day for us at Wolf Creek was fun! – pic taken 3/31/2021

Last day for us at Wolf Creek was fun! – pic taken 3/31/2021

Wednesday – 31 Mar 2021 – 7:00pm

Overall situation…

I don’t remember seeing any clouds today!  The day started chilly with temps in the single digits for some folks and then warmed nicely into the low 50s.

Ridging will be in control the rest of the week, however a weak trough will move through Friday afternoon/evening and bring a few more clouds and a chance for mountain showers.  The trough won’t have any impact on the warmer than average temps.  Friday through Monday will be really nice!

Satellite shows very few clouds over the entire western US.  That low will fall apart as it moves northwest into Arizona, but there could be just enough moisture and instability to cause a few showers Friday afternoon.
Satellite shows very few clouds over the entire western US.  That low will fall apart as it moves northwest into Arizona, but there could be just enough moisture and instability to cause a few showers Friday afternoon.

My forecast…

Tonight through Monday… Skies will be mostly clear except for Friday afternoon and evening when spotty showers are possible over the mountains.

Low temps tonight will be mid-teens to low 20s.  High temps tomorrow will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be upper teens to mid-20s.  Friday through Monday we’ll have highs in the 60s and lows in mid-20s to low 30s.  The warm spots could hit 70 this weekend!

The GFS precip for Friday shows 0.10” to 0.20” over our mountains.  It continues to be the most optimistic forecast model.
The GFS precip for Friday shows 0.10” to 0.20” over our mountains.  It continues to be the most optimistic forecast model.
The Euro precip for Friday shows up to 0.10” over our mountains.  It lines up well with the other forecast models.
The Euro precip for Friday shows up to 0.10” over our mountains.  It lines up well with the other forecast models.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5372 / 1966193 / 1931

My next forecast post will be on Friday.  Tomorrow I’ll do a summary for March and a look ahead to April.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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