Winter is coming…then spring again!

Winter is coming

3-25-21: 3pm update…

A tale of two cities (well, towns). At our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake it has not stopped snowing all day, but while looking at the Jim Smith Realty Cam it doesn’t even look like the same place! Even the Wolf Creek Pass Cam doesn’t look as snowy as it does up here.

IMG 5051
A view of our neighbor’s backyard at 2:30pm
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Photo from the Jim Smith Realty Cam at 2:30pm

At 3:15pm all this has changed! Snow has finally moved into downtown Pagosa Springs…it’s amazing how quickly the weather changes up here.

For the rest of our area, no big changes in the forecast for our upcoming storm that arrives this afternoon. A deep digging trough will jumpstart our snow conveyor belt by bringing in a SW flow starting this afternoon. On Friday, the trough will spawn a closed upper level low pressure that will add convection, enhance our snow rate and even give us a chance for some thundersnow. After about 24 hours of winter, the sun comes back out on Saturday and high pressure takes over for at least 4-5 days if not longer with high temperatures returning to the 50’s by Sunday. Until then, we will only see highs in the 30’s the rest of today and tomorrow with a good chance for snow.

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Our future upper level low location as of Friday afternoon…north central AZ.

As of this post we are surrounded by Winter Weather Advisories only but I’m convinced that as soon as I post this there will be Winter Storm Watches, etc.

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Current advisories until I make this post.
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The latest NWS snowfall forecast through Friday night.

My Forecast:

For the valley between now and Saturday morning: 4-6 inches of snow that could accumulate tonight and tomorrow.

For the near mountain locations 8000-9000 feet: 5-7 inches of snow that could accumulate tonight and tomorrow.

For the mountains between now and Saturday morning: 10-20 inches of snow.

-Mark Langford

Average HighRecord High/YearAverage LowRecord Low/Year
5273/1940193/1969
Pagosa Springs Climate Info for 3-25-21

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