One of many fantastic fall views in Pagosa Country – Pic taken 10/7/2026
Saturday – 10 Oct 2026 – 2:30pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Thursday: High: 74, Low: 37, Peak wind: 16mph
Friday: High: 71, Low: 37, Peak wind: 13mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 68 | 79 / 1943 | 28 | 17 / 1982 |
Precipitation summary… Most of the county has been dry the last few days. Two lucky spots recorded 0.01” this morning.
Current satellite and radar…
Forecast highlights…
*** Remnants of hurricane Rachel will help give us a soaking Saturday night into Wednesday. Best chance for heavy rain is Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Otherwise, it will be hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. ***
*** 1-3” of snow is possible on Wolf Creek Pass Tuesday and Wednesday. ***
*** Temps below freezing are likely each morning starting Thursday (15 Oct). ***
Saturday evening through Wednesday afternoon… A deepening low pressure system will move south along the coast and then turn east through southern CA. It is expected to move through southern UT on Wednesday. Remnants of hurricane Rachel will pump moisture into the system and give us a good soaking.
Occasional bands of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move through Saturday evening into Wednesday afternoon. The best chance for periods of heavy rain is Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.
The SNOW forecast is tricky… Initially the airmass will include Rachel so it will be warm with snow levels 12,500ft to 13,000ft. By sunrise Monday the snow level will be 11,500ft to 12,000ft. Tuesday night it will drop to around 10,500ft and by sunrise Wednesday it could be as low as 9,000ft.
Snow forecast…
Mountains above 12,500ft: 4-8” of snow
10,000ft to 12,500ft: 1-3” of snow is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Wolf Creek Pass should remain mostly wet.
Above 8,500ft in the Pagosa area: a few wet snowflakes are possible
Wednesday night through next Saturday… I’m not sure about this period. Some models expect the low to move east and for us to dry out while other models expect the low to wobble around UT and NV and keep us unsettled. At this time, I think we will see a few scattered showers each day, but precip amounts will be low.
Snow levels will bounce between 9,500ft and 10,500ft. Wolf Creek Pass could get a few fast-moving snowshowers, but most of this period looks dry.
Temps…
Saturday night lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60. Sunday and Monday lows will be in the low to high 40s. Tuesday night lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Wednesday highs will be near 50 to the high 50s and *** lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s. ***
Thursday through next Saturday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and *** lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s. ***
Winds…
Sunday through Tuesday, gusts will be 25-30mph. *** In the high country, 40-50mph gusts are likely. ***
Wednesday afternoon, gusts will be 20-25mph.
Thursday through next Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Precip amounts have trended down.
The Pagosa area could see a few snowflakes above 8,500ft, but I do not expect any accumulation.
17 Oct to 25 Oct… There is a lot of uncertainty for this period. The GFS thinks a blocking high pressure will keep us mostly dry while the Euro expects the ridge to be transient and then potential troughs to give us a couple of chances for precip.
The forecast models are all over the place so I don’t trust them.
Snow levels and snow amounts are all over the place so they can’t be trusted.
The next post will be on Monday.
– Shawn
