Snow amounts trending up…

Spots of sun and moody clouds on Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 10/11/2026

Monday – 12 Oct 2026 – 3:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 65, Low: M, Peak wind: 26mph

Sunday: High: 67, Low: 47, Peak wind: 28mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
66	80 / 1991	28	17 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Saturday afternoon scattered light showers gave us a little precip. Sunday afternoon was more interesting with a few heavy showers, lots of lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain amounts reported Sunday morning range from 0.02” to 0.25”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain amounts reported Monday morning range from 0.13” to 0.77”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – It has dried out over our area, but upslope flow has helped develop a few spotty showers today. The low currently over eastern OR will move through our area Wednesday afternoon.

Radar at 2:52pm Monday – You have to look real close to see the light, spotty showers in our area. They are terrain induced and moving towards the northeast. The activity to our west will move our way late tonight.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday afternoon. ***

*** 3-6” of slushy snow is possible on Wolf Creek Pass Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect winter driving conditions. ***

*** A HARD FREEZE is likely Wednesday night. Temps will be below freezing each morning the rest of the week. ***

*** Lots of sun and mostly dry Thursday through next Monday. ***

*** Another round of valley rain and mountain snow is possible 20-22 Oct. ***

Rest of Monday through Wednesday afternoon… A low will move through the Four Corners area Wednesday afternoon. Storm energy will increase late Monday night leading to another round of wet weather.

Occasional bands of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are likely through Wednesday afternoon.

The SNOW level will bounce between 11,500ft and 12,000ft Monday afternoon into late Monday evening. Early Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening it will be 10,500ft to 11,000ft. Late Tuesday evening it will drop to around 10,000ft and by sunrise Wednesday it could be as low as 9,000ft.

Snow forecast…

Mountains above 11,500ft: 8-16” of snow

10,000ft to 11,000ft: 3-6” of slushy snow is possible Tuesday and Wednesday

Above 8,500ft in the Pagosa area: a few wet snowflakes are possible

Wednesday night through next Monday… We will be between a ridge to our north and a cut-low spinning over the Baja Peninsula. There is a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower, mostly over the mountains. I expect the Pagosa area to be dry through this period.

Snow levels will bounce between 9,500ft and 10,500ft. Wolf Creek Pass could get a few fast-moving snowshowers, but accumulations will be minimal.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the high 30s to the high 40s.

Tuesday highs will be near 50 to the mid 50s and lows will be near freezing to near 40.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 40 to the low 50s and *** lows will be in the mid 20s to the mid 30s. ***

Thursday through Saturday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and *** lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s. ***

Sunday and next Monday highs will be in the high 50s to the mid 60s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Winds…

Tuesday and Wednesday, gusts will be around 20mph. Isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday late afternoon and evening, gusts will be around 30mph.

Friday through next Monday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

*NBM precip to late Wednesday evening shows 1.14” in the Pagosa area and up to 2.50” in our mountains.*

NBM snow to late Wednesday evening shows none near Pagosa, 3-6” near Wolf Creek and up to 16” on our high peaks. Most of this will fall Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. The Pagosa area could see a few snowflakes above 8,500ft, but I do not expect any accumulation. — *NBM snow to late Wednesday evening shows none near Pagosa, 3-6” near Wolf Creek and up to 16” on our high peaks. Most of this will fall Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.*
*The Pagosa area could see a few snowflakes above 8,500ft, but I do not expect any accumulation.*

19 Oct to 27 Oct… Another storm is taking shape 20-22 Oct. The models are all over the place for the rest of the period, so I don’t trust them.

*Euro ensemble total precip to 27 Oct shows 3.74” in the Pagosa area. The Euro expects the most precip. The GFS expects an inch less.*

Euro ensemble total snow to 27 Oct shows around an inch in the Pagosa area, 9-15” near Wolf Creek and up to 30” on our higher peaks. Snow levels and snow amounts are all over the place so they can’t be trusted.

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 27 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s wet into Wednesday evening and then it’s dry through next Monday. Another wet pattern is taking shape late 20 Oct into 23 Oct. The rest of the period is a mystery. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 27 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s wet into Wednesday evening and then it’s dry through next Monday. Another wet pattern is taking shape late 20 Oct into 23 Oct. The rest of the period is a mystery.*

The next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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