Fall colors are peaking in parts of Pagosa Country! See the two waterfalls? – Pic taken 10/7/2026
Thursday – 8 Oct 2026 – 3:00pm
Please join our local Trout Unlimited group to clean up the East Fork of the San Juan River this Saturday, 10 Oct, at 10am. Trash bags, plastic gloves, and LUNCH will be provided. For more info and to sign up, go this LINK.
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Tuesday: High: 76, Low: 40, Peak wind: 22mph
Wednesday: High: 75, Low: 41, Peak wind: 32mph
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 68 | 85 / 1910 | 28 | 12 / 1992 |
Precipitation summary… Parts of the county got a good soaking Tuesday afternoon.
Current satellite and radar…
Remnants of Rachel will get entrained into a low-pressure system that will impact us Saturday night into Wednesday.
Forecast highlights…
*** Mostly dry and sunny through Friday ***
*** Remnants of hurricane Rachel look likely to give us a soaking Saturday night into Wednesday. ***
*** 1-3” of snow is possible on Wolf Creek Pass Tuesday night and Wednesday. ***
*** Temps below freezing are likely each morning starting next Thursday (15 Oct). ***
Rest of Thursday through Saturday morning… A pesky little low over UT will keep the region unstable and help kick up an isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.
Saturday afternoon through Wednesday… Another wet pattern is taking shape. A deepening low pressure system will move south along the coast and then turn east through southern CA. It is expected to move through the Four Corners area on Wednesday. Remnants of hurricane Rachel will pump moisture into the system and give us a good soaking.
Right now it looks like the heaviest precip is possible late Saturday night into Monday morning and then again Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning.
The SNOW forecast is tricky… Initially the airmass will include Rachel so it will be warm with snow levels 12,500ft to 13,000ft. Starting Tuesday evening the snow level will drop to 12,000ft and then to around 10,000ft early Wednesday morning. Some forecast models expect the snow level to drop as low as 8,000ft early Wednesday morning.
Snow forecast…
Mountains above 12,500ft: 4-8” of snow
10,000ft to 12,500ft: 1-3” of snow is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wolf Creek Pass should remain mostly wet.
Above 8,000ft: a few wet snowflakes are possible
*** There is still a lot of uncertainty. I’ll continue to adjust the details as the data gets better. ***
Temps…
Thursday night lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Friday highs will be in the high 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to mid 40s.
Saturday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.
Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and lows will be in the low to high 40s.
Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 50s and *** lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s. ***
Next Thursday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60 and *** lows will be in the high 20s to the mid 30s. ***
Winds…
Friday and Saturday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
Sunday through Wednesday, gusts will be 25-30mph. *** In high country, gusts to 50mph are possible. ***
Next Thursday gusts will be around 20mph.
Precip amounts have trended down.
This snow will fall Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The Pagosa area could see a few snowflakes above 8,000ft, but I do not expect any accumulation.
15 Oct to 23 Oct… Some models show a cut-off low wobbling around the Great Basin and keeping things unsettled 16-18 Oct while others expect high pressure to build over the region. Right now I’m going with the high pressure keeping us mostly dry.
Snow levels and snow amounts are all over the place so they can’t be trusted.
It’s dry through Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon there’s a chance for scattered showers. Precip ramps up Saturday night into Monday morning. After a short lull, there’s another round of showers Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers are possible into Wednesday evening. Then it looks like a high will build over the western US and it will be mostly dry. Other models expect it to be more active.
The next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
