Potential soaker from remnants of Rachel Sunday into next Wednesday…

Tommy likes fall in our Pagosa paradise as much we do! – Pic taken 10/5/2026

Tuesday – 6 Oct 2026 – 3:30pm

Please join our local Trout Unlimited group to clean up the East Fork of the San Juan River this Saturday, 10 Oct, at 10am. Trash bags, plastic gloves, and LUNCH will be provided. For more info and to sign up, go to this LINK.

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 73, Low: 40, Peak wind: 17mph

Monday: High: 73, Low: 40, Peak wind: 22mph

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
68	82 / 1956	29	13 / 1908

Precipitation summary… A few lucky folks got a few raindrops yesterday.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reported Tuesday morning ranged from zero to 0.04”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – There is a weak little low over western UT moving our way and kicking up scattered showers. The jet, large yellow arrows, is well to our north. Remnants of Rachel could get entrained into a low pressure system that will impact us Sunday through next Wednesday. — *Water vapor satellite Tuesday afternoon – There is a weak little low over western UT moving our way and kicking up scattered showers. The jet, large yellow arrows, is well to our north.*
*Remnants of Rachel could get entrained into a low pressure system that will impact us Sunday through next Wednesday.*

*Radar at 3pm Tuesday – Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two have popped up over our mountains. They are nearly stationary.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Pesky weather pattern with a slight chance for an afternoon shower each day through Saturday. ***

*** Remnants of hurricane Rachel look more likely to give us a soaking Sunday into next Wednesday. ***

*** Temps below freezing are possible each morning starting next Thursday (15 Oct). ***

Rest of Tuesday through Saturday… The high will remain over the region but it is weakening and slowly shifting east. A mid-level low will slowly move through the Four Corners and cause a slight increase in instability.

A few weak showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Sunday through next Wednesday… Another wet pattern is taking shape. A deepening low pressure system will move south along the coast and then turn east through southern CA. It is expected to move through the Four Corners area on Wednesday. Remnants of hurricane Rachel could pump moisture into the system and give us a good soaking.

Right now it looks like the heaviest precip is possible late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon and then again Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.

SNOW levels will be around 12,500ft Sunday through Monday evening and then drop to around 11,000ft early Tuesday morning. Our mountains above 12,500ft could get 4-8” of snow. 11,000ft to 12,500ft 1-3” of snow is possible. A few wet snowflakes are possible on Wolf Creek Pass. The road should remain wet while a dusting of snow is possible along the road.

*** There is still a lot of uncertainty. I’ll continue to adjust the details as the data gets better. ***

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be near 70 to the mid 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Friday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Saturday highs will be near 60 to the mid 60s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Sunday through next Wednesday highs will be in the mid 50s to near 60. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday lows will be in the low to high 40s. *** Next Wednesday overnight lows will be in the low to high 30s. ***

Winds…

Tuesday evening gusts will be 20-25mph.

Wednesday through Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Monday and Tuesday, gusts will be 20-25mph.

*NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening shows 2.59” in the Pagosa area and up to 4.50” in our mountains.*

*NBM snow to late next Wednesday shows 1-2” near Wolf Creek and up to 4” on our high peaks. I think the snow level will be a little lower and that we will see up to 8” on our higher peaks.*

13 Oct to 21 Oct… The first few days will be unsettled. After that, I don’t see any organized storms. It looks mostly dry.

*Euro ensemble total precip to 21 Oct shows 2.53” in the Pagosa area. The forecast models are aligning better, except for the GFS, which expects much less precip.*

*Euro ensemble total snow to 21 Oct shows up to an inch in the Pagosa area, 3-6” near Wolf Creek and 6-10” on our higher peaks.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 21 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry through most of Saturday. Late Saturday there’s a chance for scattered showers. Precip ramps up Sunday into Wednesday night. Then there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks mostly dry. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour and total precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 21 Oct. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s mostly dry through most of Saturday. Late Saturday there’s a chance for scattered showers. Precip ramps up Sunday into Wednesday night. Then there is a lot of uncertainty, but it looks mostly dry.

The next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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