The San Juan River peaked at 679cfs Thursday evening while the Piedra peaked just under 1,000cfs early Friday morning. – pic taken 9/18/2026
Friday – 18 Sep 2026 – 4:15pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Wednesday: High: 71, Low: 50, Peak wind: 9mph, Afternoon humidity: 43-48%
Thursday: High: 63, Low: 53, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 72%
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 73 | 86 / 1956 | 35 | 9 / 1993 |
Precipitation summary… Much of the county saw on and off mostly light rain for much of Wednesday and Thursday. Strong storms with heavy rain stayed mostly to our south and to our west.
Multiday precip amounts for parts of the county were quite impressive. Rain lottery winners got over 3”. That’s 150% of September’s average in just a few days!
Current satellite, radar, and river flow…
Sunday and Monday drier air will move in from the west and southwest.
The Piedra River crested near 1000cfs early Friday morning.
It’s great to see a big influx of fresh water!
Forecast highlights…
*** The Swiss Roll Fire, burning about 14 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs, is 777 acres. The fire has received quite a bit of rain recently. ***
*** Late Friday afternoon and evening there will be a few spotty showers. ***
*** Saturday morning through the afternoon there’s a slight chance for a spotty shower or two. Patchy fog is also possible over low-lying areas Saturday morning. ***
*** Sunday and Monday will be mostly sunny with temps near average. ***
*** The rest of next week looks active. It could be another soaker. ***
Late Friday afternoon into the evening… It will be less active but there will still be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms.
*** Saturday morning fog and low clouds are possible. ***
Saturday… A weak trough will move through before noon and could kick up an isolated shower or two.
Sunday and Monday… Upper-level flow will turn more westerly and push much of the moisture to our east. We will see a few clouds build over the mountains each afternoon, but I expect us to be dry.
Tuesday through next week… There continues to be uncertainty for this period. The high is expected to wobble around the TX region while a weak low moves over the Vegas area and then over the Salt Lake area. Southerly flow between these two features will funnel subtropical moisture into our area while instability is marginal.
I feel more confident about rain Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday than I do about Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
The forecast models expect anywhere from around 0.40” of precip to over 3”. That is a huge variation! At this point, I can see us getting 1” to 1.5” but that’s likely to change a few times between now and then.
Temps…
Friday night lows will be in the low 40s to near 50.
Saturday through Monday, each day highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Tuesday through next Friday, each day highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Winds…
Friday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
Saturday and Sunday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Winds will start picking around 11am and then decrease 7-8pm each day.
Monday through next Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.
*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***
Forecast models for this period vary from 0.44” to 3.37”. That’s a whole bunch of uncertainty.
22 Sep to 3 Oct… It’s transition season. We are gradually switching from a summer monsoon to a fall pattern. Forecast models always struggle during transitions seasons. They are widely fluctuating and unreliable.
Right now, I’m sticking with the typical seasonal shift of the summer high weakening and the jet stream slowly dipping farther south. I don’t expect much precip during this period.
It’s dry Sunday and Monday. Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening looks wet and then there’s a short lull Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon into next Saturday morning there is a lot of uncertainty. Note precip amounts for the 50 versions of the Euro model vary from zero to 5” – crazy! The higher amounts are from the remnants of a tropical storm, but the odds of that look low at this time. And then 28 Sep to 3 Oct is less active and drying out.
The next post will be on Sunday.
– Shawn
