Another beautiful sunrise in Pagosa Country! – pic taken 9/16/2026
Wednesday – 16 Sep 2026 – 2:00pm
The past…
Stevens Field Observations
Monday: High: 69, Low: 50, Peak wind: 9mph, Afternoon humidity: 73-78%
Tuesday: High: 77, Low: 49, Peak wind: 24mph, Afternoon humidity: 31-36%
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 87 / 1956 | 35 | 25 / 1971 |
Precipitation summary… Monday was active with a few strong storms, especially across southwest and south-central Archuleta County. Tuesday was quiet most of the day and then got active shortly after sunset.
Current satellite and radar…
As I type at 1:30pm, most of the action is to our south in northern NM.
Forecast highlights…
*** Fire restrictions have been lifted for Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest. ***
*** The Swiss Roll Fire, burning about 14 miles northwest of Pagosa Springs, is 777 acres. The fire has received rain over the last couple of days. ***
*** The weather pattern will be active through Friday. Embedded storms will be capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***
*** Things line up best late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Total precip amounts for this period could approach 2”. A FLOOD WATCH is in effect through Thursday evening. I do not expect the San Juan or Piedra rivers to get anywhere near flood stage. ***
*** How about mountain snow? Snow levels will be 13,000 to 14,000ft for most of this event. Strong showers or thunderstorms could temporarily drop it down to 12,000ft so a brief dusting is possible above timberline. We are more likely to see hail than snow on our mountains. ***
*** Saturday through Monday will be less active but there’s still a chance for a few scattered storms each day. ***
Rest of Wednesday through Friday… We are in the sweet spot between a low spinning over northern CA and a high wobbling around the southeast US. Near record precipitable water means our storms with have a whole bunch of moisture to work with.
*** Things line up best late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Total precip amounts for this period could approach 2”. Minor flooding along small streams and low-lying areas is possible. I do not expect the San Juan or Piedra rivers to get anywhere near flood stage. ***
*** Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, each morning fog and low clouds are possible. ***
Friday will be less active but there will still be scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will be capable of brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Saturday through Monday… Upper-level flow will turn more westerly and push much of the moisture to our east. It will be marginally unstable so there’s a chance for a few scattered afternoon and evening storms. Saturday is the best chance for a little action while Sunday and Monday look mostly dry.
Tuesday through next week… There is a lot of uncertainty for this period, but a little more moisture and a little more instability will result in a slightly more active pattern with scattered afternoon and evening storms.
Temps…
Wednesday night lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.
Thursday highs will be near 60 to the high 60s and lows will be in the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Friday highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.
Saturday through Monday, each day highs will be in the high 60s to the mid 70s and lows will be in the mid 30s to the mid 40s.
Tuesday through next Thursday, each day highs will be in the mid 60s to the low 70s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.
Winds…
Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Saturday is the exception with afternoon gusts around 25mph.
*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***
20 Sep to 1 Oct… The forecast models agree it will remain active. The question is how active? I don’t see anything significant on the horizon, but there will be a chance for a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
It’s wet late through Friday. There’s a lull with less activity and more hit and miss storms Saturday through Monday. It gets more active again next week, and then it wants to dry out.
The next post will be on Friday. Keep an eye on Facebook for quick posts.
– Shawn
