Dry and Breezy through Thursday – More active the rest of the week…

Tommy photo-bombed my sunset picture! – pic taken 8/31/2026

Tuesday – 1 Sep 2026 – 3:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 77, Low: 54, Peak wind: 26mph, Afternoon humidity: 29-34%

Monday: High: 71, Low: 52, Peak wind: 22mph, Afternoon humidity: 46-51%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	90 / 1985	41	30 / 1962

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got decent rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Monday was mostly a bust.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports on Monday morning ranged from 0.07” to 0.41”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain reports on Tuesday morning ranged from zero to 0.12”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Satellite loop 1:36pm to 2:31pm Tuesday – The moisture plumes has moved over far eastern CO and eastern NM. Clouds over the San Juan region indicate stable conditions. — *Satellite loop 1:36pm to 2:31pm Tuesday – The moisture plume has moved over far eastern CO and eastern NM. Clouds over the San Juan region indicate stable conditions.*

*Radar at 2:36pm Tuesday – It’s stable over much of the Four Corners area.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Recent rain hasn’t been enough to ease fire danger. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Mostly dry with breezy afternoons Wednesday and Thursday. ***

*** Scattered storms Friday through the middle of next week. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Thursday… A low-pressure system impacting the Pacific NW has pushed the monsoon moisture plume to our east. We will be mostly dry and sunny with breezy afternoons.

Friday through the middle of next week… The high will strengthen over the central plains and help push some monsoon moisture and instability back into our area. It’s a coin toss for you to get rain on your head each afternoon and evening.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Wednesday through next Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday lows will be near 40 to the high 40s. Saturday through next Tuesday, lows will be in the low 40s to near 50.

Winds…

Wednesday and Thursday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Friday through the middle of next week, each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

*** As always, isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. ***

NBM precip to next Friday evening (11 Sep) shows 0.88” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.50” in our mountains. This is encouraging, but I’m leery because it hasn’t panned out all summer. — *NBM precip to next Friday evening (11 Sep) shows 0.88” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.50” in our mountains.*
*This is encouraging, but I’m leery because it hasn’t panned out all summer.*

8 Sep to 16 Sep… The first few days of this period, things line up for decent monsoon action. Then a couple of troughs skirting to our north will help dry us out.

Euro ensemble precip to 16 Sep shows 1.77” in the Pagosa area.
Precip amounts have stayed pretty steady over the last few days. — *Euro ensemble precip to 16 Sep shows 1.77” in the Pagosa area.*
*Precip amounts have stayed pretty steady over the last few days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 16 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry through Friday morning. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons there’s a slight chance for spotty showers. Monday through next Friday there’s a good chance for scattered showers. The rest of the period looks quiet. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 16 Sep. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s mostly dry through Friday morning. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons there’s a slight chance for spotty showers. Monday through next Friday there’s a good chance for scattered showers. The rest of the period looks quiet.

The next post will be Thursday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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