Good chance for a soaking Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday…

I can do without the smoke, but it makes colorful sunrises and sunsets. – pic taken 8/6/2026

I can do without the smoke, but it makes colorful sunrises and sunsets. – pic taken 8/6/2026

Sunday – 9 Aug 2026 – 3:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Friday: High: 92, Low: 49, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 7-12%

Saturday: High: 88, Low: 49, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 10-15%

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8190 / 19694529 / 1956

Precipitation summary… There were a few spotty raindrops Saturday afternoon.

Current satellite, radar, and smoke…

Water vapor satellite loop from 2:21pm to 3:16pm Sunday – The high is over northeast AZ and moving east. Moisture is circulating clockwise around the high. Flow over us is out of the west.
Water vapor satellite loop from 2:21pm to 3:16pm Sunday – The high is over northeast AZ and moving east. Moisture is circulating clockwise around the high. Flow over us is out of the west.
Radar at 3:24pm Sunday – There are a few spotty, weak showers in our area moving towards the east-southeast.
Radar at 3:24pm Sunday – There are a few spotty, weak showers in our area moving towards the east-southeast.
The smoke map on Sunday afternoon shows “light” smoke over us. Air quality has been “moderate” for the last 24 hours.
The smoke map on Sunday afternoon shows “light” smoke over us.
Air quality has been “moderate” for the last 24 hours.

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons have dried things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

 *** Starting Monday and through the rest of next week, there will be hit and miss storms each afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will be soakers. The best chance for a soaking is Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Do your rain dances! ***

*** Rio Blanco Fire… Thanks to the efforts of everyone tackling the fire, containment is 79% and property owners have returned! For the most current information follow Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office or Rio Blanco Fire on Facebook or Watch Duty. ***

Monday through next weekend… The subtropical high will finally move to our east – where we want it! Monsoon moisture and instability will increase. There will be scattered storms each afternoon and evening.

The most favorable days for a good soaking are Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Storms on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be capable of producing heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, poor visibility, and lightning over small areas for short periods.

Temps…

Sunday night lows will be near 50 to the mid 50s.

Monday and Tuesday, highs will be in the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Wednesday highs will be near 80 to the high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Thursday through next weekend highs will be in the high 70s to the mid 80s and lows will be near 50 to the high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM precip to next Sunday evening (16 Aug) shows 0.92” in the Pagosa area and up to 2.00” in our mountains. This is from scattered storms starting Monday. The best chance for storms is Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Any single storm will be capable of producing heavy rain over a small area.
NBM precip to next Sunday evening (16 Aug) shows 0.92” in the Pagosa area and up to 2.00” in our mountains.
This is from scattered storms starting Monday. The best chance for storms is Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Any single storm will be capable of producing heavy rain over a small area.

16 Aug to 24 Aug… The subtropical high will slowly migrate from the south-central plains to eastern NM. This keeps us on the more favorable west side of the high with monsoon moisture and instability. Scattered storms will be possible each afternoon and evening.

Euro ensemble precip to 24 Aug shows 2.11” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have been pretty steady over the last two days. Much of Colorado should get a soaking over the next two weeks.
Euro ensemble precip to 24 Aug shows 2.11” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have been pretty steady over the last two days. Much of Colorado should get a soaking over the next two weeks.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry today and then storm activity starts increasing Monday. It peaks Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and then bounces around a little through the rest of the period.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s mostly dry today and then storm activity starts increasing Monday. It peaks Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and then bounces around a little through the rest of the period.

The next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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