Just sprinkles this week. Monsoon returns next week.

Cumulus/altocumulus make for spectacular sunsets! Photo Credit to Bryan – pic taken 7/26/2026

Monday – 3 Aug 2026 – 7:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 91, Low: 50, Peak wind: 23mph, Afternoon humidity: 13-17%

Monday: High: 91, Low: 50, Peak wind: 32mph, Afternoon humidity: 10-15%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	94 / 1940	46	34 / 1975

Precipitation summary… There were a few showers in the area Saturday evening.

CoCoRaHS 2 Aug 26 — *Precip reports from Sunday Morning for rain that fell Saturday evening. Leo on CatchPole was the rain lottery winner with .08. Ricky on Upper Blanco reported .07″.* *Welcome to Brooke on the western frontier!*

Current satellite and radar…

Sat — Water vapor satellite Monday at 7:20pm – The high is to our west and has cut off monsoon moisture. Flow around the high is indicated by the blue arrows. Flow over us is out of the northwest which is not conducive to good monsoon showers anyway.

There are not any radar reports near us this evening. Rainshowers in San Luis Valley are moving from the northwest to the southeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Warm, breezy afternoons are drying things out. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 fire restrictions. ***

*** Spotty showers storms each afternoon and evening. ***

*** Rio Blanco Fire: 1,140 Acres. For the most current information follow Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office or Rio Blanco Fire on Facebook and the Watch Duty app. ***

This week… The subtropical High will remain to our west till this weekend. Over the weekend it wobbles over the four corners area. By Sunday evening it should be to our east where it belongs for a good monsoon pattern. It will take a few days for it to pick up good moisture.

Monsoon moisture and instability will increase a little. There will be a few hit and miss storms most afternoons and evenings. It’s weak. Expect only a few sprinkles. Best chance is over the weekend.

Temps…

Lows: Upper 40s to Low 50s.

Highs: Upper 80s to Low 90s. We could break records on Thursday: 91 set in 1981, Saturday & Sunday: 90 set in 1969.

Winds…

Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday afternoon gusts to 25mph. Thursday as the gradient tightens expect evening wind will gusts to 30mph from 6pm till midnight.

*NBM precip to next Sunday evening shows only 0.02” in the Pagosa area and 0.1” in our mountains.*

*NBM precip to next Wednesday (Aug 12th) evening shows 0.32” in the Pagosa area and 1.5” in our mountains. The return of monsoon moisture begins Monday the 10th.*

10 Aug to 18 Aug… The ridge will slide to our east Sunday into Monday. Monday and Tueday will see weak showers and thunderstorms through out the area with small hail, gusty winds. Wednesday (12th) and beyond will see widespread monsoon thunderstorms with potential for moderate to heavy rain.

2 week precip — *Euro ensemble precip to 18 Aug shows 1.65” in the Pagosa area.*

3 Aug to 18 Aug — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 18 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*There’s a slight chance for a few weak storms through 10 or 11 Aug and then it’s more active through the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Wednesday evening.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I served in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed several times, including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, Shawn and I found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!

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