Mostly dry and warm through Monday…

Smoke from the Rio Blanco Fire settles down the valley each night and into the next morning – pic from Austin Marchand, Rocky Mountain Balloon Adventures 7/30/2026

Thursday – 30 Jul 2026 – 6:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Tuesday: High: 92, Low: 56, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 14-21%

Wednesday: High: 87, Low: 56, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 21-27%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1947	46	27 / 1913

Precipitation summary… A good chunk of the county got rain Tuesday afternoon and evening. It’s been dry since.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Wednesday morning ranged from 0.04” to 0.38”. Most locations were in the 0.10” to 0.20” range.*

Current satellite and radar…

*Water vapor satellite Thursday at 5:51pm – Archuleta County is circled in purple. Monsoon moisture has been cut off. Drier, more stable air has moved over the Four Corners area.*

*Radar at 6:06pm Thursday – Archuleta County is circled in black. A couple of storms moved through the South Fork area Thursday afternoon, but it’s been quiet on our side of The Divide.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Recent rains have been spotty with some areas getting a soaking while others hardly get anything. The San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 1 restrictions. ***

*** Mostly dry and warm through Monday. ***

*** The rest of next week will be more active with scattered storms each afternoon and evening. ***

*** Rio Blanco Fire: For the most current information follow Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office on Facebook or Watch Duty. ***

Rest of Thursday through Monday… The monsoon is taking a break from us. It’s dry, warm, and fairly stable. There is a slight chance for a spotty storm each afternoon and evening, but most of us will stay dry.

Tuesday through the rest of next week… Monsoon moisture and instability will slowly increase each day. There will be hit and miss storms most afternoons and evenings.

Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning rain over small areas.

Temps…

Thursday night lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Friday through next Thursday highs will be in the high 80s to mid 90s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

WPC precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” in our mountains. Most of this is expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons and evenings. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably. — *WPC precip to next Thursday evening shows 0.17” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.50” in our mountains. Most of this is expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons and evenings.*
*It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.*

30 Jul to 14 Aug… The subtropical high pressure will wobble around the Four Corners region. Some days will be more active than others, but it looks good!

*Euro ensemble precip to 14 Aug shows 1.00” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have trended down over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 14 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry through Sunday or Monday and then it gets a little more active through the middle of next week. Activity slowly ramps up through the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 14 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s mostly dry through Sunday or Monday and then it gets a little more active through the middle of next week. Activity slowly ramps up through the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Saturday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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