Rain lottery winners and losers every day…

The Rio Blanco Fire was reported Tuesday afternoon roughly 10 miles south of Pagosa Springs – pic from Archuleta County Sheriff’s department 7/28/2026

Tuesday – 28 Jul 2026 – 5:45pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 92, Low: 56, Peak wind: 40mph, Afternoon humidity: 23-29%

Monday: High: 89, Low: 55, Peak wind: 21mph, Afternoon humidity: 24-29%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1947	46	27 / 1913

Precipitation summary… A few heavy showers hit parts of the county Sunday afternoon. Monday was mostly dry.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Monday morning ranged from 0.02” to 1.57”. Most locations were in the 0.05” to 0.20” range.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Tuesday at 5:16pm – Archuleta County is circled in red. Monsoon moisture is outlined in green. The eastern part of the county has been active while the western part has been dry.

*Radar at 5:32pm Tuesday – Archuleta County is circled in black. Scattered storms are hitting eastern parts of the county and are moving towards the northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains high. Recent rains have been spotty with some areas getting a soaking while others hardly get anything. The entire San Juan National Forest is under stage 2 fire restrictions while Archuleta County is under stage 1 restrictions. ***

*** MONSOON action is here for a while – yay! Scattered afternoon and evening storms are likely most days. Let it rain! ***

*** Rio Blanco Fire: For the most current information follow Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office on Facebook or Watch Duty. ***

Rest of Tuesday through next Tuesday… Monsoon moisture and instability will ebb and flow. Some days will be more active than others, but there will be scattered storms most afternoons and evenings.

Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning rain over small areas.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Wednesday through next Tuesday highs will be in the high 80s to mid 90s and lows will be in the low to high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*WPC precip to next Tuesday evening shows 0.31” in the Pagosa area and up to 0.90” in our mountains. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.*

28 Jul to 12 Aug… The subtropical high pressure will wobble around the Four Corners region. Some days will be more active than others, but it looks good!

*Euro ensemble precip to 12 Aug shows 1.23” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have trended down over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 12 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s active Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday and then less active Friday, Saturday, and maybe Sunday. It gets more active Monday and through the rest of the period. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 12 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s active Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday and then less active Friday, Saturday, and maybe Sunday. It gets more active Monday and through the rest of the period.*

The next post will be Thursday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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