Fewer storms through Monday – more active rest of the week…

These monsoon storms are impressive! – pic taken 7/17/2026

Saturday – 18 Jul 2026 – 3:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Thursday: High: 81, Low: 48, Peak wind: 28mph, Afternoon humidity: 30-36%

Friday: High: 80, Low: 55, Peak wind: 22mph, Afternoon humidity: 30-38%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	92 / 1909	46	35 / 1948

Precipitation summary… Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to soak some spots while mostly missing others.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Friday morning ranged from 0.03” to 0.65”. Most locations were in the 0.10” to 0.30” range.*

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Saturday morning ranged from zero to 0.36”. Most locations got less than 0.10”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – The high is over the northwest corner of Colorado. Flow around the high is indicated by the blue arrows. Northeast flow over much of Colorado is pushing the moisture (outlined in green) to our south. Archuleta County is circled in red. — Water vapor satellite Saturday afternoon – The high is over the northwest corner of Colorado. Flow around the high is indicated by the blue arrows. Northeast flow over much of Colorado is pushing the moisture (outlined in green) to our south.
*Archuleta County is circled in red.*

*Radar at 3:16pm Saturday – There are a couple of weak showers moving through parts of Archuleta County. Storms are moving towards the southwest.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains very high. The entire San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 2 fire restrictions. ***

*** MONSOON action is here for a while – yay! There will be lull through Monday with fewer storms and then the rest of the week will be more active. ***

Sunday and Monday… The high will be to our north. Weak easterly flow will be more stable and drier. Afternoon and evening storms will be more hit and miss.

Tuesday through next weekend… The high will shift towards the Texas panhandle. Flow will be out of the south and southwest and will bring in more moisture and instability.

We will see an increase of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain over small areas.

Temps…

Saturday night lows will be in the high 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday through next weekend highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to the mid 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*Euro precip to late next Sunday evening (26 Jul) shows 0.63” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.50” in our mountains. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.*

18 Jul to 2 Aug… The subtropical high pressure will wobble around the Four Corners region for much of this period which is ok for us. At the end of this period, the high could shift towards the lower Colorado River basin which would result in a less active and dryer pattern for us.

*Euro ensemble precip to 2 Aug shows 1.86” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have bounced around over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 2 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s less active through Monday and then more active through the rest of the week. There rest of the period looks active but other forecast products hint at less moisture. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 2 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
*It’s less active through Monday and then more active through the rest of the week. There rest of the period looks active but other forecast products hint at less moisture.*

The next post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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