We’re going to get wet…

The WPC “Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flood Potential” is elevated for us on Wednesday

Monday – 20 Jul 2026 – 5:30pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Saturday: High: 79, Low: 51, Peak wind: 22mph, Afternoon humidity: 32-36%

Sunday: High: 89, Low: 51, Peak wind: 25mph, Afternoon humidity: 21-30%

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	94 / 1910	46	36 / 1987

Precipitation summary… Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to soak some spots while mostly missing others.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Sunday morning ranged from zero to 0.39”. Most locations were in the 0.10” to 0.30” range.*

CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Monday morning ranged from zero to 0.39”. Most locations got less than 0.05”. — *CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reported Monday morning ranged from zero to 0.11”. Most locations got less than 0.05”.*

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The high is to our north and giving us dry, easterly flow. By late Tuesday night, the high will be in the TX panhandle area and giving us southerly flow. That will push the monsoon plume, outlined in green, over us. Archuleta County is circled in black. — Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The high is to our north and giving us dry, easterly flow. By late Tuesday night, the high will be in the TX panhandle area and giving us southerly flow. That will push the monsoon plume, outlined in green, over us.
*Archuleta County is circled in black.*

*Radar at 5:14pm Monday – There are no storms over Archuleta County on radar. Easterly flow has dried us out and stabilized the atmosphere.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Fire danger remains very high. The entire San Juan National Forest and Archuleta County are under stage 2 fire restrictions. ***

*** MONSOON action is here for a while – yay! There will be a lull through early Tuesday afternoon and then the rest of the week will be more active. Our best surge of moisture happens Wednesday. Let it rain! ***

Rest of Monday through early Tuesday afternoon… There’s just a slight chance for a few weak, spotty storms late Monday evening. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Late Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening… Things line up well for us to get some soaking monsoon storms.

We will see an increase of afternoon and evening storms that could persist into the early morning hours each night. Storms will produce short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning over small areas.

Friday and through the following week… Monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us. We will have scattered storms each afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing short periods of heavy rain over small areas.

Temps…

Monday night lows will be in the high 40s to mid 50s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows will be near 50 to the mid 50s.

Wednesday through next Monday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the near 50 to the high 50s.

Winds…

Each afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph though isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

*WPC precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.72” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.20” in our mountains. It’s all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.*

20 Jul to 4 Aug… The subtropical high pressure will wobble around the Four Corners region for much of this period which is ok for us. At the end of this period, the high could shift towards the lower Colorado River basin which would result in a less active and dryer pattern for us.

*Euro ensemble precip to 4 Aug shows 2.24” in the Pagosa area. Forecast precip amounts have trended up slightly over the last two days.*

This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 4 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions. It’s mostly dry through early Tuesday afternoon then activity ramps up late Tuesday afternoon and peaks Wednesday and Thursday. The rest of this period looks active with scattered afternoon and evening storms each day. — This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 4 Aug. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control, mean, and range of the 50 versions.
It’s mostly dry through early Tuesday afternoon then activity ramps up late Tuesday afternoon and peaks Wednesday and Thursday. The rest of this period looks active with scattered afternoon and evening storms each day.

The next post will be Wednesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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