Critical fire weather through Thursday – scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend…

Tommy in the wild irises along the upper Weminuche – pic taken 6/7/2026

Tommy in the wild irises along the upper Weminuche – pic taken 6/7/2026

Tuesday – 9 Jun 2026 – 3:00pm

The past…

Stevens Field Observations

Sunday: High: 77, Low: 40, Peak wind: 30mph

Monday: High: 80, Low: 39, Peak wind: 29mph

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7690 / 19853417 / 1950

Precipitation summary… We got a few spotty raindrops today.  We’ll have to wait for amounts to be reported tomorrow morning.

Current satellite and radar…

Water vapor satellite loop 1:41pm to 2:36pm Tuesday – A trough will move through the area this evening. Instability ahead of the trough is kicking up showers. It’s dry behind the trough.
Water vapor satellite loop 1:41pm to 2:36pm Tuesday – A trough will move through the area this evening. Instability ahead of the trough is kicking up showers. It’s dry behind the trough.
Radar at 2:42pm – Most of the showers have moved to our east. They are moving rapidly towards the northeast.
Radar at 2:42pm – Most of the showers have moved to our east. They are moving rapidly towards the northeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Low humidity, gusty winds, and drying fuels are leading to critical fire conditions. RED FLAG WARNINGS Tuesday and Wednesday. FIRE WEATHER WATCH for Thursday. ***

*** A few hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. ***

*** Breezy afternoons and mostly dry for the next week or two. ***

Rest of Tuesday… A trough will skirt to our north this evening. Instability enhanced by the trough is kicking up fast-moving isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

Gusty winds will persist into the evening and then taper off by midnight.

Wednesday through Friday… The ridge will be to our south while the trough remains to the north. Upper-level flow out of the west will keep our afternoon winds breezy and keep us dry and warm.

Saturday and Sunday… A little influx of moisture and instability will help kick up a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Monday and next Tuesday… A ridge will build to our west. Upper-level flow out of the northwest will be more stable and drier.

Temps…

Tuesday night lows will be near 40 to the high 40s.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s and lows will be in the high 30s to the mid 40s.

Thursday through next Tuesday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Winds…

Tuesday afternoon into the evening gusts will be 35-40mph.

Wednesday afternoon gusts will be 30-35mph.

Thursday and Friday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Saturday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Sunday, Monday, and next Tuesday, each afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

NBM temps and dew points to 20 June shows daily highs mostly in the low to mid 80s and low temps mostly in the low to high 40s. I circled the dew points.  Today, Wednesday, and Thursday it’s dry with dew points in the teens. Friday through Monday moisture will increase slightly with dew points in the 20s, and then it dries out again 16-19 June.
NBM temps and dew points to 20 June shows daily highs mostly in the low to mid 80s and low temps mostly in the low to high 40s.
I circled the DEW POINTS.  Today, Wednesday, and Thursday it’s dry with dew points in the teens. Friday through Monday moisture will increase slightly with dew points in the 20s, and then it dries out again 16-19 June.
NBM precip to late next Tuesday evening shows 0.02” near Pagosa Springs. Most of this is expected today in spotty showers.
NBM precip to late next Tuesday evening shows 0.02” near Pagosa Springs. Most of this is expected today in spotty showers.

16 Jun to 24 Jun… The subtropical high will try to set up near the Four Corners and will keep us mostly dry and warm.

Euro ensemble precip to 24 Jun shows 0.47 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up slightly.
Euro ensemble precip to 24 Jun shows 0.47 ” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts have trended up slightly.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions. It’s dry Tuesday morning. Today there are a few spotty showers with light precip amounts. Then it’s dry Wednesday through Saturday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons.  Then it’s mostly dry through the rest of the period.
This is Euro ensemble 24-hour precip amounts for the Pagosa Springs area to 24 Jun. It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of the 50 versions.
Today there are a few spotty showers with light precip amounts. Then it’s dry Wednesday through Saturday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons.  Then it’s mostly dry through the rest of the period.

The next post will be Thursday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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